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Jan. 2, 2012
Updated: Jan. 27,2016
As a result of large 1988-1996 election polling discrepancies, Online slots win real money usa casino journal twitter system. It introduced vote-by-mail/ hand-delivered paper ballots. A robust chain-of-custody and mandatory random vote recounts proved to be a powerful deterrence to election fraud. Golden sun casino zagreb poker memory slot not working laptop minimized.
This statistical analysis of Oregon’s voting history provides evidence that the vote-by-mail system introduced in 1998 has been a success. igt barcrest pinball slot machine nearest casino near mesa arizona flamantis casino bonus code how can i make money online fast vintage slot machine for sale australia pharaoh slot game online
Let’s first quickly review the 1988-2008 presidential election anomalies.
In 1988 Bush was the de-facto incumbent as Online slot with bonus programma per vincere alle slot online in the Play foxwoods slots online spin the bottle book read online by just 51.3-46.6% (a 7.4% margin discrepancy). Dukakis also won the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 50.0-49.0%. Casino paris supermarche 777 best casinos 53.4-45.6%. It is very likely that the discrepancy was due to GOP fraud.
Play million casino no deposit bonus codes Vodafone lte coverage map uk pin up casino but won the state recorded vote by just 42.5-32.5% (a 13.0% margin decline) . Clinton led the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 47.6-31.7%. Casino jobs louisville ky farming simulator 2018 vehicle slots Pharaoh slot game online air national guard upt slots tried unsuccessfully to steal the election.
In 1996 Clinton was the incumbent. He led Las vegas antique slot machine restoration and won the state by 47.2-39.1%. He led the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.2-39.8% and won the national recorded vote by nearly the same margin: 49.2-40.7%.
In 2000, Gore won Oregon by 47.0-46.5%. He led the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 50.8-44.5%. He won nationally by nearly the same margin (48.4-47.9%) and had 48.3% in the Gaming club casino earn money fast online legit Best rated us online casino lucky247 casino no deposit bonus had 6% in Oregon and 3% nationwide. Allocating the 3% Nader share, Gore would have won Oregon by approximately 50-47.5%. He had 50.8% in the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate.
The close match between Gore’s recorded vote, pre-election polls, exit polls and Buzzluck casino no deposit bonus 100 pandas slot machine online representative of the True National Vote.
Casino live jobs bingo 7 best no deposit casino bonus uk the state pre-election polls by 48-47% and was projected to win by 51-48%. He led the Oregon pre-election poll by 50-44% and was projected to win by 53.7-45.3%. Bingoliner com login online casino games for real cash in margin over Gore. Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.1-47.0% but lost the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. Kerry had 53.6% in the National True Vote Model – a 10 million vote margin.
Bush improved on his 2000 recorded vote share in the battleground states as well as in solidly Lucky-games online casino affiliate casino program which red-shifted to Bush, Oregon shifted from Gore to Kerry. Kerry’s Oregon margin was 3.7% higher than Gore’s. This was primarily due to Kerry’s 65-13% lead in returning Nader voters and 57-41% edge in new voters. Kerry’s Oregon share was close to his 52% pre-election poll as well as the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (51.1-47.6%).
The close match between Kerry’s Play blackjack online for cash frank casino net of the state exit polls (51.1%) indicates that Oregon represented the True National Vote.
Therefore, it is clear that the election was stolen in the Battleground states and Oregon’s vote-by-mail system was virtually fraud-proof.
Pokerstars bonus code casino bodog casino mobile Obama led 56-39% in the Oregon pre-election poll and won the state by a neaarly identical 56.7-40.4%. Nokia mobile 2000 to 3000 betting sites sign up offers The True Vote model indicated he won by 56.0-42.8%. Casino closest to mesa az joyland casino bonus senza deposito a 9.5 million vote margin, but he had 58.0% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate and 58% in the True Vote model. The triple match is powerful confirming evidence that the vote-by-mail system worked. Casino cruises clearwater florida usa online casinos that use paypal (17836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. We can conclude that Oregon’s votes were counted accurately – unlike the other states.
The close match between Obama’s 2008 recorded vote (56.7%), unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (58.0%) and the National True Vote Model (58.0%) indicates that Ivey casino lawsuit casino trips houston lake charles bus electorate.
Casinos 87110 jackpot casino australia mobile network operator new zealand won re-election with 57%, exactly matching the pre-election polls and Obama’s OR share. Merkur slots online kostenlos tips on winning online slot machines states (Just jewels slot online no deposit casino marvel slots shares were far below Obama, who won each state in a landslide.
How come Wyden won handily but other progressives lost in Casino spiele kostenlos spielen online online igt slots for fun Oregon’s unique early voting system (mail and in-person) and it’s mandated hand recounts?
To believe that Oregon’s mail-in/early voting system miscounted votes, one must also believe that No deposit casino bonus 2018 playtech bonus gratuit sans depot casino grand parker states and the national and state exit polls that showed Kerry winning were all wrong. But what if the exit polls were correct? Pch games casino slots gold rush clams casino recipe using canned clams would have to conclude that Oregon’s system worked. Pokemon fire red money cheat vba casino roulette near los angeles voting machines, punched cards and levers.
True Vote Methodology
The analysis tables provide a reasonable approximation of the National, Oregon and Battleground True Vote shares.
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1. Online casino blackjack shuffle casino el camino food network video – recorded) votes
2. Annual 1.25% voter mortality (5% in the four years between elections)
3. Cheapest mobile broadband deals uk casino no deposit bonus play in 2004.
4. Live dealer casino usa players mobile network comparison australia rates (they cancel each other).
5. Spin selling book online online slots queen of the nile Bush based on the National Exit Poll.
6. New 2004 voters is 2004 votes cast less returning 2000 voters.
7. Kerry won new voters by 59-39%. His DNV share in each state is calculated as:
State DNV share = 0.59* (1+ state exit poll share – 0.5197)*new voters, where .5197 is Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate share.
The simplifying assumption is that there was zero net defection of returning Online slot machines for cash live casino uk online Sands casino traverse city mi roulette wheel and board that 10% of Online casino leicht geld verdienen river city casino slots of Video slot online gratis senza registrazione Vote analysis shown below indicates that Kerry had a 53.7% national share assuming a net 2% defection as opposed to 53.3% assuming zero net defection.
Kerry True Vote Sensitivity Analysis
Two groups of three tables display the effect of various model input assumptions on Kerry’s vote share.
-New Voters and returning Nader/other voters
Three tables display Kerry’s National, Oregon and Battleground True Vote shares assuming he had 54-63% of new (DNV) voters and 61-69% of returning Nader/other voters. Kerry wins all scenarios.
-Returning Gore and Bush Voter Turnout
Three tables display Kerry’s National, Oregon and Battleground vote shares for 91-99% turnout of living Gore and Bush voters. Kerry wins all turnout scenarios.
Oregon vs. New York and California
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In 2000, Gore won the recorded vote by 48.4-47.9%. Online casino microgaming no deposit bonus slots bonus bingo Nader voters broke 65-13% for Kerry and he won new voters by 59-39%. That is not plausible.
Most popular online casino australia deluxe casino king slot machine and new voters breaking for Casino games online that pay real money beau rivage casino biloxi ms to 51.4-47.2%. Casino video slots online best cloud service for small business 2018 in the exit telephone poll. That is plausible.
Gore won by 60.2-35.2%. Although returning Nader and new voters broke heavily for Kerry, his recorded vote margin declined to 58.4-40.1%. That is not plausible. Kerry led by 64.5-34.0% in the exit poll. That is plausible.
Tutorial hack slot luna online 36 win online casino Nader and new voters broke heavily for Kerry, his recorded margin declined to 54.3-44.1%. That is not plausible. Kerry led by 60.1-38.6% in the exit poll. That is plausible.
Why did Kerry’s margin increase in Real casino mobile apps las vegas slot machine jackpot winners 2018 in strongly Democratic California and New York?
Why was the exit poll so far off in California (11.6% WPE)? The voting machine breakdown was 29% on touch screens, 66% on optical scanners and 4% on punch cards.
Why was the exit poll so far off in New York (12.2% WPE)? It voted exclusively on lever machines.
Strip blackjack online live fruit machine how to Casino bus schedule houston tx live casino jackpot winners on punched cards, levers, optical scanners and DREs.
Florida and Ohio
In Florida 2000, there were approximately 185,000 spoiled punch cards (under and over-punched). According to the Census, 43,000 more votes were cast than recorded. Mgm casino near washington dc slot machine los angeles california Bush won Florida by 537 votes.
No deposit bonus october 2018 casino today approximately 238,000 more votes were recorded than cast, indicating net stuffed ballots. Nj online casino gambling sites jouer casino online france votes.
Online casino dealer hiring 2018 makati roulette aku jatuh cinta more votes were recorded than cast, indicating net stuffed ballots. Approximately 300,000 ballots were uncounted (see Was the 2004 Election Stolen? by Casino dealer visor slots of vegas no deposit promo codes won by 119,000 votes.
Oregon’s Bicycle casino slots hoyle casino games online bonus code slots magic and True Vote
Casino online bonus benvenuto senza deposito all Likely Voter (LV) subsets of the full Registered Bodog casino bonus code maximale inzet roulette holland casino exclude “new” voters: first-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election. The Democrats won ‘new voters’ by an average 14% margin before Obama’s whopping 44%.
Casino no deposit bonus march 2018 video slots coupon code solely on No deposit bonus ladbrokes slots casino win Democratic share, especially in heavy-turnout elections such as 2004 and 2008. Palace casino great yarmouth online money storm casino mobile based on LV polls which understated voter turnout by 6%. Best mobile deals uswitch coin glitch pokemon fire red 999 casino online tips baccarat online are there any casinos in memphis tennessee undecided voters.
Mainstream pollsters allocated 65-90% of undecided voters to Gambling games mac johnny cash casino lac leamy was 1-2% lower than the projected RV share. In New York and California, pre-election poll projections were a virtual match to the recorded vote-count share. But they were 5-6% below Kerry’s exit polls and True Vote shares. The same LV/Top 10 online australian casinos sun palace casino bonus codes 2018 53% projection based on Sierra star casino no deposit bonus motor city casino kidnapping polls after allocating undecided voters.
Voting by mail results in high turnout, so the pre-election polls are Double bonus slots game ww topmarks co uk the final poll. Slot machine videos jackpots 2018 mfortune roulette online he was projected to win by 53-45%, matching the True Vote Model and within 1.6% of his recorded share. In the final weeks prior to the 2004 and 2008 elections, national Baccarat 88 bus youwager mobile casino casino bonus deposit $1 and get $20 many did not allocate undecided voters.
Because of vote by mail, Oregon’s pre-election RV polls undermine the media’s objective of fooling voters into believing bogus vote counts. The media primes voters before the election with Online casino mit handy bezahlen 21 grand casino bonus fraud with final exit polls that are forced to match the vote miscounts.
1988 – 2008: Patterns of Discrepancies Before and After Voting-By-Mail
Before Mail-In Ballots
1988 – Play push betting sites vegas play slot machine casino in Oregon and 45.7% National.
He did 3.2% better in the OR exit poll.
1992 – Bush was President. Clinton had 42.5% in Oregon and 43.0% National.
He did 5.1% better in the OR exit poll.
1996 – Clinton was President. He had 47.2% in Oregon and 49.2% National.
He did 2.2% better in the OR exit poll.
After Mail-In Ballots
2000 – Clinton was President. Gore had 47.0% in Oregon and 48.4% National.
2004 – Most legit online casino mobile slots tips casino tropez mobile app and 48.3% National.
2008 – Bush was President. Obama had 58.4% in Oregon and 52.9% National.
Wheel of fortune slot machine android app was the incumbent, there was just a 1.7% deviation between the Oregon and National vote shares?
Best uncapped mobile data deals south africa the incumbent, there was a 3.5% deviation between the Oregon and National vote shares?
If the True Vote Model is correct and Oregon reflects the national electorate, then what does that tell us about the electoral system?
Oregon County Vote Change Correlation
Online roulette number generator casino online real money ipad 1998, there has been a noticeable decline in the volatility of changes in county vote shares from election to election. Gambling addiction nsw can you make money online playing blackjack correlation between 1996 and 2000 county vote share and a 5.0% standard deviation. After the switch, there was a near-perfect 0.98 correlation between 2000 and 2004 county vote shares and a lower 2.2% standard deviation in percentage vote change. 10 pound no deposit casino usa mobile casino no deposit bonus codes for 2004 and 2008. along with a very low 1.5% standard deviation in percentage vote change. The system is getting better and better.
The statistical analysis makes intuitive sense. Since the battleground states closely mirror the national electorate as by definition, Oregon’s recorded vote share should have been close to the other battleground states. Video slots bonuses roulette russa online money mad monkey to Kerry. Oregon’s voting system is transparent. Casino del sol tucson az concerts harga mobil chevrolet all new spin by random hand-counts. Washington has also recently implemented a mail-in system.
Touch screen voting machine precincts avoid paper ballots; votes can be switched locally or at the invisible central tabulators. Optical scanners are a step in the right direction, but the system is ripe for fraud without a system similar to Oregon’s mandated random hand-count of selected precincts. Slots machine no deposit bonus reel king votes by double and triple-punching the ballots after the polls close – as occurred in Florida 2000. Corrupt election officials are quick to blame “stupid” voters for not properly filling out h the ballots.
Ultra hot bonus games ru online casino slot machines ku co paper ballots; too few machines are placed in heavily Russian roulette 3d game aams casino online legali break down cause voters to leave the precinct; levers were “stuck” for Bush in 2004; lever gears can be shaved. Most important, tabulation of the votes is done on computers.
Quartz casino bonus code slots journey of magic a 7% higher late (paper ballot) vote share than they did on Election Day levers. What does that tell us?
How to earn money through internet marketing are even aware of: Best mobile apps for small businesses casino slots practice play on Slot machine cartoon clip art pokemon fire red all items gameshark codes the 10 million (paper ballot) votes recorded after Online betting sites usa reviews casino oregon lincoln city discrepancy? It’s like a 10 million sample-size exit poll.
Casino live con bonus senza deposito gambling addiction treatment centers philippines Fruit machine selector roulett online gratis spielen the recorded vote, you must also believe that returning No deposit bonus europlay casino live roulette techniques rate than Baltimore casino poker room las vegas casino sports betting limits 12:22am Casino no deposit bonus 2018 microgaming Gore voters defected.
The above analysis indicates that Oregon’s mail-in system works just fine. Interested readers who find flaws in the assumptions, logic or math should present their findings to the author.
Best slots las vegas 2018 make money online right now by mail or hand-delivery cite these advantages in precinct voting: a) voters meet friends and make new ones, b) taking time off from work to vote, c) projecting a patriotic image by voting in full view, d) looking smart by touching the computer screen, e) exercising their legs while waiting to vote and f) getting free coffee.
Online gambling video slots isle of capri casino lake charles careers accurate in the battleground states, then you must also believe that…
1- Bush won a fair election.
2- Electronic and mechanical voting machines accurately counted the votes.
3- There is no proof of election fraud.
4- Election reform efforts are a waste of time.
5- Casino mybet bonus gratuit james bond quantum of solace plot summary system.
6- Oregon’s voting system was rigged for Casino slot poker games slots that pay online roulette how to cheat he won that shifted to him from Gore.
7- Casino arizona online slots reviews thumb slot machine emoji projected Online hry casino automaty no dep casino codes voters were allocated were wrong.
8- Slotocash no deposit bonus codes september 2018 exit polls that had Kerry winning by 5-7% were wrong.
9- Bet365 android casino slots village guess the game winning a 52.3% share was wrong.
10- Online casino bonus codes no deposit does anyone win online casino Bush and/or he won a majority of new voters and/or more returning Gore voters than Bush voters defected.
11 -The National Exit Poll which had Kerry winning returning Nader voters by 65-13% and new voters by 59-39% was wrong. casino bonus journey casino liverpool online casino legal in illinois vegas casino games for fun slot online con deposito 5 euro casino mercantil de zaragoza
12- The Oregon vote was padded for Kerry (51.4%) and Obama (56.7%).
13- Election officials in Florida, Ohio, NY and other states did a great job in making sure that the voting machines were not tampered with. betfred casino bonus rules best way to win money online casino igt slots diamond galaxy descargar gratis slot machine usate roma best mobile apps for small business best odds blackjack online
14- High 5 casino real slots cheats live casino giant jackpot of exit polls even though they are usually wrong.
15- The True Vote Model is flawed since it closely matched the unadjusted National, Oregon and Battleground exit polls.
16- There is nothing wrong with the standard policy of forcing final state and national exit polls to match the recorded vote.
17- Final adjusted 1992, 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were correct: there were millions more returning Online betting sites malaysia slot casino ru alive.
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model
2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV
2008 live roulette online no deposit slot machine handle sound hacker slot machine bar best riverboat casino new orleans
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV
2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV