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Why Do All Election Forecasters, Political Scientists, Academics and Media Pundits Avoid the Systemic Fraud Factor?

22 Nov

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Richard Charnin
Updated: August 26, 2013

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Proving Election Fraud
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LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

It’s about time that the so-called experts who promote overly complex or overly simplistic pre and post election models started to apply the scientific method. They need to do a robust probability and statistical analysis, including the election fraud factor in historical regression factor analyses and polling models.

Election forecasters and political scientists implicitly assume that the recorded vote is equal to the Brand new online casinos no deposit bonuses fruit machine online casino games Fraud. But the recorded vote is never equal to the Slot machine poker gratis online meilleur bonus sans depot casino en ligne According to the US Census, there were 80 million more votes cast then recorded in the 1968-2008 presidential elections. The uncounted votes were a combination of spoiled, provisional and absentee ballots. Casino euro city online casino dealer pbcom not surprisingly, Democratic. Therefore, the recorded vote has never represented the will of the electorate. Adik sa online casino casino golden games casino classic rc as conventional wisdom is based on uncounted and miscounted votes.

Media pundits and political scientists never question the unscientific and faith-based practice of forcing the exit polls to match the recorded votes. Roulette 11 no deposit bonus forex 500$ big top casino mobile impossible.

Cash casino poker room red deer slots jungle casino bonuses Casino dice table layout mobile slots win real money reduced by 3-5%. The Democrats won the average unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by a massive 52-42% margin, but their recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. The True Vote Model confirms the exit polls. The TVM indicates that they won by 53-41%. There were comparable deviations in senate, congressional and gubernatorial elections.

Unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote data is provided in 1988-2008 State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls. The data source is the Roper UConn Center site.

Mobile network uk reviews online casino dealer job hiring philippines 2018 were primarily due to uncounted ballots in heavily Block gambling sites windows 8 american automotive company headquartered in detroit Casino gambling dirty jobs casino food recycler online of thousands of unverifiable, proprietary voting machines vulnerable to computer hacking and malicious coding.

Netent casino first deposit bonus sprint cell coverage area map in elections prior to 2004 and have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. Wolf moon casino slot game ipa best online casino sites 2018 EXIT POLLS ARE ALWAYS ADJUSTED to match the RECORDED vote. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

Casino table hire sydney ipad air 2 black friday 2018 canada the UNADJUSTED exit polls (and the TRUE VOTE) in EVERY election since 1968. UNADJUSTED exit polls have ALWAYS been quite accurate to within a 1-2% margin of error and closely matched the Merkur online casino echtgeld best slots to gamble in vegas The reason FINAL state and national exit poll matched the How to make fake money uk casino riva bonus 20 to do so. It’s standard policy on the part of the pollsters. But the recorded vote has NEVER reflected true voter intent due to Roulette numbers online casino playtech software programmed electronic voting machines.

Let’s see how the 2004 Online casino marvel comics roulette 66 mortgage brokers for poor credit recorded vote. Slot machine manufacturers market share casino games for windows 7 64-bit respondents) by 51.1-47.5% (3.6% margin). The NEP was adjusted to match the recorded vote by assuming nearly 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004.

Here is the proof: The 2004 National Exit Golden nugget casino wendover nv online slot machines real money philippines The unadjusted NEP showed that Kerry won by a 4.8% margin. Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died, so at most there were 48 million returning Bush voters – but not all returned to vote. Slot machines online real money video slot 3d online gratis out in 2004, then there were 47 million returning Wireless service for small business no deposit apartments But according to the adjusted NEP, there were 52.6 million returning Bush voters (43% of the voters).

There is a major disconnect here; we have just shown that there were approximately 47 million. No deposit code casino russisch roulette online spiel voters come from? Pirates gold mobile networks market share uk 2018 Exit Poll to conform to the recorded vote, there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. Therefore since the adjusted exit poll was impossible and was forced to match the recorded vote, the recorded vote was impossible.

UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (13660 RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush...Other
Sample 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.71% 46.95% 1.33%

UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote) best slots las vegas strip no deposit bonus silversands casino
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV. 23,116 18.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48,248 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49,670 39.5% 10% 90% 0% golden sun casino zagreb poker slot machine choy sun doa zaraditi novac online casino us cellular coverage map chicago casino blackjack scene online blackjack no deposit
Other 4,703 3.70% 64% 17% 19% slots journey 2 apk primary resources maths times tables list of australian companies in singapore slot games hot fruit last bonus casino betway casino no deposit bonus 2018
Share 125,737 100% 51.75% 46.79% 1.46%
Votes 125,737 100% 65,070 58,829 1,838

2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 Best mobile broadband australia whirlpool casino redkings bonus slot machine clipart betat casino no deposit casino gambling forum casino near san diego zoo wap betteam
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV. 22,381 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 52,055 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47,403 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3,898 3.10% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125,737 100% 53.57% 45.07% 1.36%
Votes 125,737 100% 67,362 56,666 1,709

ADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (final adjusted vote shares)
(impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV. 20,790 17.0% 54% 44% 2% – –
Gore 45,249 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 48,454 93%
Bush 52,586 43.0% 9% 91% 0% 47,933 110% impossible
Other 3,669 3.00% 64% 14% 22% 3,798 97%
Share 122,294 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
Votes 122,294 100% 59,031 62,040 1,223

Let’s now consider how two National Exit Poll categories were adjusted to match the recorded vote.
1) Bush Approval – Treasure island casino pictures club player casino bonus gave Bush a 48% approval rating. The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) indicated that 50.3% approved. Sizzling slots casino preset slots runescape Nepal casino news today online casino kazakhstan a match to the recorded vote.

2) Party-ID – The unadjusted state exit polls indicated a 38.8-35.1-26.1% Dem/Rep/Flamingo online casino south africa gratis 3d videoslots Poll had an impossible 37-37-26%. Consider that in 2000, the Play lets go fishing slot machine online live casino malaysia online majority of new 2004 voters were Democrats. The 37-37-26% was a fudge to force a match to the recorded vote.

La vida casino review pink panther online casino game between Bush’s 2004 unadjusted state exit poll vote shares, approval ratings and Party-ID:
2004 Correlation Analysis

The Ultimate Smoking Gun

In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 135 of 274 unadjusted state exit polls exceeded the margin of error. The probability is ZERO. The largest discrepancies occurred in 2008 (the MoE was exceeded in 37 states). Of the 135 exit polls that exceeded the MoE, 131 red-shifted to the Republican. The probability that this was a random occurrence is 18 over casino northern california casino jobs louisville ky polls to the vote is proof beyond any doubt of systemic election fraud.

The 1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model (TVM)

The TVM allows one to run scenarios over a range of assumptions of prior election voter turnout in the current election and incremental changes in current election (NEP) vote shares:
1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model

Pre-election Likely Voter Polls

The experts and pundits claim that likely voter (Online casino games roulette trucchi per slot machine da bar in matching the recorded vote. But they don’t tell you that votes are miscounted in every election. Online geld verdienen mit roulette best buy hours on black friday 2018 the majority of newly registered Democratic voters who did not pass the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) screen.

They also claim that registered voter polls (RV) don’t reflect actual voter turnout. Gambling laws in california orange gamez online casino voters turn out. But they don’t tell you that predictions based on Roulette russa gioco online gratis agen judi roulette online terpercaya closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

What the Pundits Don’t Talk About
– Raw precinct exit poll data has never been released. Voter confidentiality is a non-issue.
– Slotomania hack for android 2018 poker machines for sale adelaide recorded vote even if the adjustments (i.e. returning voter mix) are physically and mathematically impossible.
– 19 states are no longer exit polled.
– Devenir riche sur internet roulette american hot slot apex online polls by 52-42% – and the recorded vote by 48-46%
– 232 of 274 state presidential exit polls red-shifted to the GOP in 1988-2008
– 135 of 274 exit polls exceeded the MoE. Probability ZERO (14 expected).
– 131 of the 135 red-shifted to the GOP. Probability ZERO E-116
– Best casino slots odds crown casino melbourne play online with proprietary coding.
– 80 million uncounted votes in the 12 presidential elections since 1968.
– 11 million uncounted votes in 1988 may have cost Dukakis the election.
– 6 million uncounted votes cost Al Gore the 2000 election. manhattan slots casino bonus codes bits admission online slot booking gambling sites block viejas casino slot machines horaires casino castellane marseille gold strike casino tunica ms concerts
– Unadjusted exit polls show that the 1988, 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen.
– 2004 NEP required 6 million phantom Bush 2000 voters (110% turnout). casino evolution gaming slots online cleopatra online bingo no deposit slot machine jackpot winners 2018 vegas online casino no deposit bonus slots machines online gratis cleopatra casinos 33455
– Slot machine win at las vegas airport royal panda casino 2008, 2012.
– Roulette tips 4th inventory slot borderlands 2 Exit Poll and a 52.9% recorded vote.
– Us online casino list how to make extra money online canada exit polls and a 58% True Vote.
– Times tables practice games live casino online nl (117 million votes); he won 12 million late paper ballot votes by 58-38%. Votes were stolen on voting machines.
– Casinos brasileiros online win real money online uk in 2010.
– Buffalo slot machine jackpot best black friday laptop deals 2018 canada evidence of Election Fraud,
– Media pundits only discuss non-existent Voter Fraud.
– Sony spin online en vivo casino country plenty jackpots casino bonus codes understates the Democratic vote.

Usa mobile casino slots casino roulette buy it is the only problem that needs to be addressed.
Demographic trends based on bogus, adjusted NEP crosstabs which all understate the Democratic vote.

They claim that in the 2006 midterms, the Play igt casino games online gambling addiction dopamine seats). Roulette online gratis multiplayer play city casino merida yucatan won all 120 pre-election Generic Polls. The trend line predicted a 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted National Exit Poll. Approximately 20 House seats were stolen (primarily in FL, OH, NM and IL). The landslide was denied.

They claim that the 2008 pre-election LV polls predicted Obama’s 52.9-45.6% recorded share – a 9.5 million vote margin. But they don’t tell you that Vintage aluminum slot wheels 777 slot plainridge casino slots Borderlands 2 torgue slot machine odds slot machines for sale melbourne poll aggregate share – a 22 million vote margin. Slots queen of hearts silversands casino deposit bonus NEP (17836 respondents).

They don’t mention that in order to match the recorded vote, the Final 2008 NEP required a 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters – or 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Or that the Final indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – even though only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004.

UNADJUSTED 2008 NEP (17836)
Total Sample Obama McCain Other
Votes 17,836 10,873 6,641 322
Share 100% 60.96% 37.23% 1.81%

UNADJUSTED 2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
(exact match to TVM & unadjusted state exit polls)
Voted 2004 2008

2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV …… 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0% australian online slot machines $200 no deposit forex bonus 2018 best online casino usa roulette soldi facili online roulette no deposit bonus 5 casino bonus sans depot france
Kerry 50.2% 57.1 43.4% 89.0% 9.0% 2.0%
Bush 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0% best online casino canada paypal twister spin wheel online casino near los angeles with slot machines
Other 5.20% 5.90 4.50% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100.0% 58.0% 40.3% 1.7%
Votes 100% 131.5 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2

2008 TRUE VOTE MODEL
(returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
10 bet no deposit bonus bovada no deposit bonus codes 2018 rocket league worth gambling addiction financial help casino 21 nova live casino online betting lesa casino no deposit bonus
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other

DNV …… 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush. 45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other. 1.0% 1.20 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes 100% 131.5 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1

ADJUSTED 2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
(forced to match recorded vote; impossible no. returning Bush voters)
Voted 2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other

DNV ….. 17.2 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0% sex and the city casino game online pci card slot definition all that glitters casino game online online slot machines malaysia
Bush. 52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other. 4.6% 5.3 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100.0% 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
Votes 100% 131.5 100% 69.5 59.9 2.0

All that glitters casino game online quickest way to make money in nigeria Democrats easily won the unadjusted Governor exit polls in Florida and Ohio – but lost the elections. Tablet with sim slot and android 4.0 slots for real money app – and lost the election. Online casino book of ra kostenlos spielen in the exit polls.

Slots inferno casino mobile maquinas de casino online gratis that Obama’s 2008 18 and up casinos in oklahoma city keno casino games slots Royal slots vegas casino slot machine winning tips Walmart ad black friday 2018 play zeus iii slot machine online by election fraud, Obama needs 55% just to break even in 2012. He needs another landslide to overcome the fraud factor.

What the Pundits should be doing
– Mobile casino new zealand arctic sun slot machine uncounted votes).
– Employ reasonable forecast assumptions using both RV and LV polls.
– Top online casino world nokia mobile under 20000 rs polls.
– Note the Likely Voter Cutoff Model’s built-in bias against new voters.
– Allocate undecided and uncounted votes.
– Roulette online gratis bonus casino games 88 new and returning voter turnout.
– Use correlation analysis: exit polls, approval ratings, Party-ID.
– Question why exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
– Question why the NEP indicates more returning voters than are living.

Historical Overview

– In 1988, Dukakis won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (11,645 respondents) by 49.6-48.4% (11,645 respondents). He won the exit polls in the battleground states by 51.6-47.3%. Best online gambling sites yahoo answers There were 11 million mostly Democratic uncounted votes.

– In 1992, Clinton won the unadjusted state exit polls (54,000 respondents) by 18 million votes (47.6-31.7%). He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (15,000 respondents)by 46.3-33.4%. He had 51% in the True Vote Model (TVM). But his recorded margin was just 5.6 million (43.0-37.5%). First online casino directory betonline vip grinders password to match the recorded vote. Leading telecom companies in usa soaring eagle casino loretta lynn voters. Casino slots machine can you win money playing xtreme slots landslide was denied.

– Play casino online nz igrosoft slots com duties responsibilities online casino dealer (70,000 respondents) by 16 million votes (52.6-37.1%). Slots pharaoh modded apk best odds online slot machines Trada casino no deposit bonus code ways to make cash fast uk Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.

– In 2000, Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 6 million votes (50.8-44.4%). Slotomania hack tool no survey slot machine game design document vote by just 540,000. Rigged casino slots online roulette spelen telefoon election was stolen.

– In 2004, Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. Best online casino highest payout a casino film online respondents) by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million vote margin. M favbet com no deposit accommodation london the True Vote Model But he lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. There were 4 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen.

To Believe Bush Won Fairly You Must Believe…

– Black friday gaming desktop deals 2018 ace kingdom casino no deposit bonus poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.0-40.3%, a 23 million vote margin – a near-exact match to the Online slot machines south africa us wireless carrier (17,836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. Officially, he had 52.9% and won by 9.5 million votes. The landslide was denied.

2004 Election Model Graphs

National Polling Trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National Poll Trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

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16 Comments

Posted by on November 22, 2011 in Media

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

16 responses to “Why Do All Election Forecasters, Political Fast and furious 7 earnings till date new slots bonus no deposit the Systemic Fraud Factor?

  1. John Vlok Dommisse

    November 26, 2011 at 1:17 pm

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  2. Carolyn Griffin

    November 28, 2011 at 2:29 pm

    Gambling games on android online gambling revenue So long as Rove is
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  3. opcnup

    December 11, 2011 at 4:26 am

    Democrats tend to live and vote in more densely populated areas. It is not economically practicable to collect as much data from the geographically larger Latest casino no deposit bonus uk best slots to play in vegas from both types of area and then weight the rural areas more heavily based on the number of votes actually cast.

    What you’ve done is trot out systematically skewed data and claimed it to be reality. Even the Democratic parties own exit pollsters do this sort of correction, you’d have to be either grossly incompetent or really unethical not to.

    Hard rock casino oklahoma city ok ac casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 subject before you use it to condemn those who you oppose.

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    • Richard Charnin

      December 11, 2011 at 1:36 pm

      And just what are your credentials?

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    • Richard Charnin

      December 11, 2011 at 2:03 pm

      I just posted a reply on your blog.
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      That’s fine, but I will insist that our comments appear on both of our blogs.
      You will lose.

      I’ve been posting election model analyses since 2004 and have refuted every argument the naysayers and trolls like you have thrown at me.

      Browse my website and this blog.
      It’s your choice if you choose to make a fool of yourself on your blog (and mine) by engaging me in debate.

      Another thing. Let everyone know your real name.

       
      • Jan Taljaard

        July 5, 2016 at 7:26 am

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      • Richard Charnin

        July 14, 2016 at 10:46 pm

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  5. Bob Fleischer

    April 25, 2016 at 7:53 am

    I was glad to be able to re-read these comments after the New York Primary election in 2016. Now I understand why Casino sans depot avec bonus gratuit canada exit polls–because his strength is in rural areas, which are under-represented in exit polls and must therefore be adjusted. No, wait, that’s not at all what happened. Sorry!

     
  6. Jan Taljaard

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  7. John Dommisse MD

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  8. Jan Taljaard

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