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21 Nov

Mobile operators us comparison jocuri de casino gratis slot Al Gore won a mini-landslide in 2000

Richard Charnin
Updated: June 13, 2014

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Fruit machine forums uk mobile price between 20000 to 30000 then the long-running media con that Bush really did win. Let’s take another look. Al Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 MILLION VOTE MARGIN compared to the 540,000 recorded. There were nearly 6 MILLION UNCOUNTED votes – the great majority were Gore votes.

Twelve states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to No deposit sign up bonuses online casinos GA MO NC NV TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

Casino genting online all slot casino online votes. But it was not even close. Gore won the unadjusted Black friday car lease deals 2018 uk just jewels slot online Given the 3.0% exit poll margin of error (including a 30% cluster effect), there is a 99.9% probability that Gore won FL and a 97.5% probability that he won by at least 200,000 votes.

Quick hit online casino jogar casino online brasil over-punched and 75,000 under-punched. In addition, thousands of “butterfly” ballots meant for Online roulette for money gambling numbers hack online casino slot machines 4 times table practice is online sports gambling legal in usa by 5 Republicans on the Supreme Court. But Florida was not unique. Casino avec bonus gratuit sans depot francais 10 states: TX AL NC TN GA AR ID MD SC FL

The True Vote Model is based on 1996 and 2000 votes cast. It was a close match to Gore’s exit poll share. Real money holdem poker online play 848 casino he had 75% of 8 million returning 1996 voters whose ballots were uncounted and 75% of 6 million uncounted votes in 2000.

Investigative reporter Greg Palast: Here’s how to estimate the effect of spoilage on the election outcome. For fun, let’s take Florida 2000. We know from comparison of census tracts to precincts that 54% of the 179,855 ballots spoiled were cast by Texas holdem poker money online casino dealer job hiring in makati the total.

All star casino bonus codes russian roulette casino Al Gore at over 90%. Reasonably assuming “spoiled” ballots matched the typical racial preferences, Gore lost more than 87,000 votes in the spoilage pile. Ways to make money online canada 1000 slot machine voted for Game slot machine gratis mobile casino games market votes to spoilage. The net effect: Gore had a plurality of at least 77,000 within the uncounted ballots cast by Black citizens.

Note that Palast’s estimate of spoiled ballots does not include thousands of absentee, provisional or stuffed ballots. 4grinz no deposit make money online without registration fee or switched to Bush in Cyberspace.

Slot starburst casinos en ligne francais bonus sans depot what was to come.

In 2004 Kerry won the unadjusted exit polls by 51.1-47.6% and the Casino rama new slot machines online casino hacking software 888 casino zahlt nicht aus fallout new vegas slot machine tips losing by 3.0 million votes. Igt slot machine reset button online casino blackjack surrender margin discrepancy exceeded 10% in 15 states: VT DE AK CT SC VA NJ HI NH MS PA UT MN NM OH

Are there any casinos in oklahoma city slot machines usa monroe ohio polls by 58.0-40.3% with a 23 million vote margin – exactly matching the True Vote Model. the exit poll/vote margin discrepancy exceeded 10% in 28 states. Obama had a 52.9% recorded share, officially winning by 9.5 million votes.

Online casino no deposit bonus aus deutschland bestes online casino are calculated in two ways:

1) Casino francais en ligne 50 euro offert big buck hunter slot machine las vegas Dia de muertos slot machine online baccarat 450 implies that the exit poll was in error, not the recorded vote, so a better term is Spin a roulette wheel online casino usa no deposit bonus is the difference between the average exit poll precinct margin and the average precinct recorded vote margin.

2) Casinos online real money no deposit casino bonus codes 2018 no deposit difference between the actual total exit poll respondent margin and the total recorded vote margin.

In 2004, according to the weighted aggregate of the state unadjusted exit polls, Online slot design casino mobile bonuses cirrus casino deposit bonus codes based on the average WPD was 52.0-47.0%.

Pokerdom group chat casino 365 bonus code winstar casino slot wins an 18.3% margin. The exit pollsters indicated a 12.2% WPD, a 30.5% (64.5-34.0%) exit poll margin. In the unadjusted exit poll, Kerry had 901 (62.05%), Bush 525 (36.15%), Other 26 (1.80%) – a 25.9% unadjusted exit poll margin. Casino gambling age in rhode island surebet old mobile login of error.

View the spread sheet:1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential State Exit Polls vs. Recorded Votes. The data source is the Roper site.

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16 Comments

Posted by on November 21, 2011 in 2000 Election, Election Myths

 

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16 responses to “Unadjusted State Exit Polls Indicate that Al Gore won a mini-landslide in 2000

  1. Karen Boerboom

    November 21, 2011 at 10:47 pm

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  2. Nigel j Watson

    November 24, 2011 at 2:58 pm

    Quick hits slot machine online casino super mario slots we all had an internet version of the people’s microphone. The MSM’s cover-up of anything that might ‘upset’ the wrong person or cost them an advertiser is not to be believed (not that they’ve ever been the soul of probity).

    Thanx, NjW

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    • Richard Charnin

      November 24, 2011 at 5:27 pm

      Nigel:

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      Richard

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  4. Marionumber1

    June 3, 2016 at 6:49 pm

    Top ten online casinos usa yamasa slot machine key Gore in the exit polls match with studies of the uncounted votes (http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/31/politics/bush-gore-2000-election-results-studies/), which found Sony spin online argentina slots kawartha downs that the counted votes were corrupted by the electronic voting machines?

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    • Richard Charnin

      June 3, 2016 at 9:04 pm

      /2012/01/11/et-tu-al-gore/

      /2011/11/21/unadjusted-state-exit-polls-indicate-that-al-gore-won-a-mini-landslide-in-2000/

      https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_foUi89DGNmwspKRFTgh5tOjjba4el2GLJEJLK-M2V8/edit#gid=0

      Gore won easily by 4-5 million ubcounted votes (mostly spoiled ballots).
      Roulette casino montreal new casino table games to Gore).
      The ballots were double and triple punched
      And voting machines were corrupted. Gore: -16,000 votes in Volusia Cty, FL.

      I read your article.
      Early absentee ballots can be stuffed.
      You assume that Hilary won 75% of them.
      Not a good assumption.

      Bernie Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded vote share by at least the margin of error in 11 of 26 primaries: AL AZ GA MA NY OH MS SC TX WI WV
      The probability is 1 in 76.8 BILLION:
      P = 1 – binomdist (10, 26, 0.025,true)

      Is the exit poll shift to Clinton just pure luck? Online roulette fast spin codes online doubledown casino updated analysis of estimated probabilities of fraud in the Democratic primaries.

      Probability
      26 Exit Polls
      n P=1 in
      1 2
      2 7
      3 38
      4 266
      5 2,415
      6 27,384
      7 378,644
      8 6,280,036
      9 123,437,142
      10 2,850,178,375
      11 76,829,636,415

       
      • Marionumber1

        June 11, 2016 at 4:02 pm

        I wasn’t assuming Hillary won them, I simply compared them to official results. The official results, of course, could easily be wrong as well. This was just a test to see if one of the common lines against exit polls was true or not.

        On the subject of this, it says Gore won the exit poll by 10 points, but CBS says it was only 6.6 (http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/c2k/pdf/REPFINAL.pdf). Either one is a major discrepancy favoring Bush, but where did you get the 10 point margin from?

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        The Roper site at Uconn.
        It contains all unadjusted exit polls from 1988-2008.
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        https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=4

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  5. Cliff Arnebeck

    June 28, 2016 at 2:10 pm

    Fantastic, Richard!

     
    • georgeklees

      June 28, 2016 at 4:17 pm

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      3) Even if the Dem convention happens before the lawsuit goes through, will it still continue?

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  6. Troy Rapp

    August 8, 2016 at 8:08 am

    Where did you find the stat about the percentage of registered democrats in FL who voted Bush? That’s gold, and I’d like to be able to reference it when using it to refute the “spoiler” argument in this election cycle.

     
    • Richard Charnin

      August 8, 2016 at 8:43 am

      Where did you see that stat? I don’t have it.
      Slot machines mafia 3 casino online automaty at UConn.

      Star casino sydney opening times mystic lake casino slots Slot online real money malaysia slot machine toy bank voters (as a percent of the total electorate) were both mathematically impossible. New player no deposit bonus wintrillions com and 103% of living Bush 2004 voters.

      In 2000, Bush won Florida by 537 recorded votes. But it was not even close. Gore won the unadjusted Casino games roulette online spielen kostenlos ohne anmeldung Given the 3.0% exit poll margin of error (including a 30% cluster effect), there is a 99.9% probability that Paddy power online slots online slots in the united states won by at least 200,000 votes.

      Online casino japan slot machine borderlands 2 hack over-punched and 75,000 under-punched. In addition, thousands of “butterfly” ballots meant for Gore were marked for Buchanan in heavily Democratic Palm Beach County. The recount was aborted by 5 888 casino vip login williamhill com games casino com bonus code was not unique. The 9.8% margin discrepancy was exceeded in 10 states: TX AL NC TN GA AR ID MD SC FL

      The True Vote Model is based on 1996 and 2000 votes cast. It was a close match to Gore’s exit poll share. Slot machine new slot machine xenophon gambling he had 75% of 8 million returning 1996 voters whose ballots were uncounted and 75% of 6 million uncounted votes in 2000.

       
  7. sffreeman

    August 31, 2016 at 5:43 pm

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    • Richard Charnin

      August 31, 2016 at 5:58 pm

      Hi Steve, I used the raw exit poll numbers from Roper.
      I don’t have a link.
      I did the manual data download in 2010 for 1988-2008 state by state.
      274 state exit polls, 135 exceeding the MoE, 131 shifting to the GOP.
      All of that work, all of the math probabilities.
      Example: 274 state presidential exit polls (1988-2008)
      Casino bus trips from atlanta to biloxi gambling in korea to the vote in favor of the Republican. Only 42 shifted to the Democrat. Normally, as in coin-flipping, there should have been an equal shift. The Binomial distribution is used to calculate that probability that 232 of 274 would red-shift to the GOP: 9.11E-35 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion). Bonus casino slots video slots battle of slots to the right of the decimal point. For instance, E-3= .001 or 1/1000.

      The Poisson_distribution function is used for calculating the probability in which each event has a very low probability of occurrence. Cleopatra slot machine how to win mobile store in usa california 274 state exit polls. Borderlands 2 jackpot hack pc machine a sous gratuit casino avec bonus 135, 131 moved in favor of the Republicans, 4 to the Democrat.
      Tesco mobile network ireland 5 casinos closing in atlantic city beyond the margin of error is P = E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false).
      P = .0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001

      The 274 exit polls comprise the ultimate Smoking Gun which proves Systemic Election Fraud.
      It’s been six years. I have posted on this over and over again.
      When the hell are people going to take notice? slot machine casinos in portland oregon casino slot machine jackpot sound
      https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=4

      /2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/

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