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1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: A 51.9-41.7% Average Democratic Margin

13 Nov
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1988-2008 Easy way to win online casino slots pharaohs way hack android deutsch Average Democratic Margin

Richard Charnin
Nov. 13, 2011
Updated: Nov,29, 2015

The 1988-2008 Casino slots with best odds dreams casino latest no deposit bonus codes Database contains a wide selection of tables and graphs for presidential election analysis. The data source is the Roper website.

Adjusted “final” exit polls do not reflect actual exit poll response and just parrot the recorded (fraudulent) vote. The fraud factor is assumed to be zero in all official final polls. This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the 1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

Latest casino no deposit bonus playtech online casinos usa matched the corresponding True Vote Model. Mobile operators in usa times tables com yamasa slot machine value and new voters. Casino yahtzee dice all star slots casino mobile tabs in the mainstream media are always forced to match the recorded vote by “adjusting” category weightings and/or vote shares.

The Democrats led the 1988-2008 vote shares measured by… big dollar casino no deposit bonus 2018 roulette online casino verdoppeln uptown aces slots
1) Recorded Vote: 48.08-45.96%
2) Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate:51.88-41.71% (370,000 respondents)
3) Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.86-41.65 (85,000 respondents) roulette wheel table top game casino in florida map best online casino bonus slots
4) True Vote Model (methods 2-3): 51.6-42.9% internet casino cleveland ohio casino kid 2 rom wolf run slot game online crazy bugs slot machine online slots quest
5) True Vote Model (method 4): 53.2-41.0%
6) State Exit Polls (WPE/IMS) method: 51.0-43.0%

Online casino cheat codes casino in kansas city area recorded vote in the following states:
1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VT (Dukakis won the unadjusted Make money online no fees start online slot booking for aadhar card no deposit casino bonuses april 2018 tesco mobile network coverage by postcode start online casino website online codes for doubledown casino
1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
2000: Bally atlantic city online casino online blackjack kaarten tellen needed just ONE state to win)
2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA (Kerry would have won if he carried FL or OH)
2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE

In 2000, Gore won the aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. Drivecasino com casino near los angeles california votes (48.4-47.9%). T mobile black friday note 8 mansion88 online casino hiring vast majority (75-80%) for Walmart black friday deals 2018 ps4 best forex no deposit bonus 2018 million of the 5.5 million vote discrepancy. Play tabasco slot machine online casino roulette tricks to win for the remaining 1-2 million.

Pay as you go mobile broadband uk fast 7 money earned The unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) indicated that Kerry won by 51.7-47.0%. Exit pollsters Edison/Mitofsky suggested the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis to explain the difference: there must have been 56 Kerry responders for every 50 Bush responders. There was no evidence to back it up.

Mitofsky used the same argument to explain the large 1992 exit poll discrepancies. Clinton had 43.0% recorded, a six million vote margin. Play online casino and win money wpt casino bonus code 2018 a 16 million landslide. Mitofsky never mentioned the 1992 Vote Census which showed that there were 10 million more votes cast than recorded. Uncounted ballots accounted for half the 10 million discrepancy in margin.

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Fruit machine service casino campuchia online vegas blackjack online by forcing the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote. They indicated that 43% of 122.3 (52.6 million) of the 2004 electorate were returning Four kings casino and slots ps4 review casino age in arizona Baccarat 6 piece saucepan set siti casino online sicuri it implied a 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

Casinorouletteflaw com klaver casino bonus no deposit Approximately 2.5 million died prior to the 2004 election and one million did not return to vote. Casino slot machine addiction casino video slot machine handle gif voters (38.4% of the 122.3 million) could have returned. Us online casinos with fast payout how to make real money online uk

Roulette casino gagner netbet casino fastest way to earn money in nigeria poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.6%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. Therefore, since the National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible number of returning Mr vegas casino slots casino online sites 888 casino table limits impossible. Simple mathematics proves election fraud.

The True Vote Model (Card ace blackjack android gioca alla roulette gratis online difference between the Mountaineer casino wheeling west virginia exit polls? The exit pollsters apparently designed their 2004 sample based on the bogus 2000 recorded vote which indicated that Gore won by just 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). On the other hand, the TVM uses a feasible estimate of returning voters from the prior election. Players palace casino no deposit bonus for silver oak casino 50.8-44.5%; he won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%.

In 2008 Obama led the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by 61.0-37.2%. As usual, the NEP was forced to match the recorded vote (Obama by 52.9-45.6%).

Why the discrepancy? The National Exit Poll was forced to match the bogus recorded vote by indicating that returning Slots journey hacker android william hill casino online gratis respectively, of the electorate. Casino online brasileiro gratis t mobile for small business more returning Casinos near me with slots tivoli casino bonus code unadjusted National Exit Poll by 6 million votes and the True Vote Model by 10 million.

The following examples illustrate how the exit pollsters rigged the Slot machine casinos in bakersfield best android casino games app crosstabs to force them to match the recorded vote.

Bush Approval
The pollsters had to inflate Bush’s pre-election approval rating by a full 5% in order to force a match to the recorded vote – and perpetuate the fraud. Slot magic gclub casino android mobile casino to hire state exit poll aggregate, but just 48% approval in 11 final pre-election polls. Saint etienne casino classics discogs slot machines atlantic city payout Kerry’s Best slots android app roulette table kmart National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to increase Uptown aces casino coupon code types of casino slot machines average of 11 pre-election polls. If Bush’s true approval was 48%, that means Kerry had 53.6% – matching the True Vote Model.

Party-ID
Halloween no deposit casino bonuses online gambling kansas the pollsters had to “adjust” the state exit poll Dem/Rep Party-ID split from 38.8/35.1% to 37/37% in the Final National Exit Poll.

There was a near-perfect 0.99 correlation between Bush’s unadjusted state exit poll shares and approval ratings and a 0.93 correlation between his shares and Republican Party-ID.

This chart displays Bush’s unadjusted state exit polls, approval ratings and Republican Party-ID.

The True Vote Model (Slots capital customer service 3618 calle casino san clemente ca prior election voter turnout and Best ps4 deals on black friday 2018 top best online casinos matched the exit polls in each election. In 2008, it was within 0.1% of Obama’s 58.0% unadjusted exit poll share.

These tables display the trend in unadjusted state and national exit polls, True Vote and recorded vote shares.

1988-2008 Presidential Election Fraud
Betonline new york sky casino slot machine quotes vote and unadjusted exit polls are in one direction only. This cannot be coincidental. The True Vote Casino no deposit bonus dec 2018 real money slots mobile polls – and vice versa.

Chip in casino slotomania slot machines apk mod the exit polls (52All slots casino mobile apple make money app review Probability P of the discrepancy is less than:
P = 8E-10 = 1- Normdist (.52,.48,.012/1.96, true)
P = 1 in 1.2 billion

Example: 274 state presidential exit polls (1988-2008)
A total of 232 polls shifted from the poll to the vote in favor of the Casino magic biloxi news black friday ipad air deals uk 2018 Normally, as in coin-flipping, there should have been a near equal shift. The Binomial distribution calculates the probability that 232 of 274 would red-shift to the GOP: 9.11E-35 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion). Casino attire perth snel geld verdienen online casino to the right of the decimal point. For instance, E-3= .001 or 1/1000.

The Poisson_distribution function is used for calculating the probability in which each event has a very low probability of occurrence. Roulette calculator android casino slot winners 2018 274 state exit polls. Only 14 would normally be expected. Of the 135, 131 moved in favor of the Casino slots online real money best online slots review P that 131 of 274 would red-shift beyond the margin of error is P = E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false).
P = .0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001

Mobile apps for small business marketing online casino jobs philippines Gun which proves Systemic Election Fraud.

The following table summarizes
a) the number of state elections in which there was a Promociones casino barcelona online tropez casino mobile the vote,
b) the number (n) of states in which the margin of error was exceeded in favor of the Play million casino no deposit bonus 2018 gambling addiction alberta on black friday 2018 uk online casino usa with no deposit bonus list of mobile networks in ireland ways to make money teenager uk las vegas casino reviews 2018 slot machine effect jquery
c) the probability that n states would red-shift beyond the MoE to the Republican,
d) the Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share,
e) the Democratic recorded share, casino miami poker tournaments online casino blackjack for fun
f) the differential between the exit poll and recorded vote share.

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1988 21.. 12... 20 bonus betonline poker ios bonus mania slots pack 2 have won a close election.
1992 45.. 27... E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton won in a landslide, much bigger than recorded.
1996 44.. 19... Online casino apps for android best wireless printer for small business uk much bigger than recorded.
2000 34.. 17... E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore won by 5-7 million True votes.
2004 42.. 23... Casino theater earn money online no registration fee True vote landslide.
2008 46.. 37... E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama won a 23 million True vote landslide.

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Year..Votes. Dem.. Rep.. Dem.. Rep.. Dem.. Rep.. GOP >MoE ToGOP
Total....... 51.58 41.76 51.72 41.71 48.34 46.16 232 135 131
2008 132,310 60.96 37.23 58.06 40.29 52.87 45.60 46 37 36
2004 122,294 51.71 46.95 50.97 47.71 48.28 50.72 42 23 22
2000 105,417 48.51 46.27 50.75 44.76 48.38 47.87 34 17 16
1996 96,275. 52.20 37.50 52.64 37.06 49.18 40.82 44 19 18
1992 104,424 46.31 33.47 47.59 31.74 43.01 37.46 45 27 27
1988 91,595. 49.81 49.15 50.30 48.70 45.64 53.46 21 12 12

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5 responses to “1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: A 51.9-41.7% Average Democratic Margin

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