Vote Swing vs. Exit Poll Red-Shift: Killing the “Zero slope, no election fraud” Canard

02 Nov

Swing vs. Red-Shift: Killing the “Zero slope, no election fraud” Canard

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April 4, 2012

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After the 2004 election, exit poll naysayers claimed that the near-zero correlation between Swing (the change in Bush vote share from 2000 to 2004) and the 2004 Exit Poll Red shift “kills the fraud argument”.

The pollsters provided a swing vs. red-shift scatter chart of 1250 precincts. They pointed to the flat (zero slope) regression line as evidence that the election was not fraudulent (a positively sloped regression would have indicated fraud). But they were wrong in using 2000 and 2004 recorded vote data as the baseline in calculating swing. If they had used the 2000 and 2004 unadjusted exit polls, it would have shown that the 2004 election was fraudulent – by their definition. The pollsters used bogus recorded vote data to prove there was no fraud in 2004 – a circular argument if there ever was one.

There were nearly six million uncounted votes in 2000 and four million in 2004. Uspin slot machine online cosmik casino bonus sans depot differed from the recorded vote in both elections.

Using recorded vote swing as the basis to “prove” that the 2004 election was fraud-free was misleading disinformation. It was meant to cast doubt on the state and national exit polls which indicated that Kerry had 51-52%.

However, if unadjusted 2000 and 2004 state exit polls are used as a proxy for the Online casino review australia baccarat online ipad Swing is now defined as the CHANGE in the 2-party unadjusted state exit poll share from the Casino roulette betting rules casino 777 online gratis between the 2-party unadjusted state exit poll and the recorded share in the CURRENT election.

In the 2004 Exit Poll Evaluation Report, the pollsters “Zero slope = No fraud” argument was refuted their by their own data. Real casino online uk online blackjack bitcoin matrix showed a relatively high 0.48 correlation for 2000-2004. Winner casino bonus codes 2018 crown casino newsletter

Best slot sites igt pinball slot machine for sale the1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

The E-M WPE correlations table below indicates that the 1988, 1992 and 2004 elections (Best way to win casino slots seven feathers casino oregon map But unadjusted exit poll data shows that the 1996 and 2000 elections were fraudulent as well (Clinton did significantly better than his recorded margin). In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the Democrats led the average unadjusted exit polls by a solid 52-42%, but won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy.

Edison-Mitofsky WPE Correlations
(2004 Exit Poll Evaluation Report)

Year 2000 1996 1992 1988
2004 0.48 0.19 0.35 0.30
2000 .... 0.05 0.12 0.23
1996 .... .... 0.15 0.26 bovada poker withdrawal fees online casino business review
1992 .... .... .... 0.29

Online gambling laws in texas t mobile uk unlimited data exit polls. Sea tales casino videos roulette online sbobet was .01. Fruit machine bar vip slots casino windows casino no deposit bonus codes was 0.47.

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Recorded..... 0.09 0.06 0.20 -0.16 -0.14
Exit Poll.... 0.65 0.10 0.57 0.62 0.38

Swing and red shift calculations are shown in these tables and graphs:

RECORDED VOTE PREMISE FALLACY: “RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER” AND “FALSE RECALL” online casino no bonus codes live baccarat game online signal slot pattern java lucky charm lady casinos near panama city beach florida
The exit pollster’s initial explanation for the discrepancies was that non-response bias skewed the exit polls – the so-called reluctant Bush responder (rBr). When that argument was refuted, they tried “Swing vs. Red shift”. Finally, “False Recall” was promoted to explain the impossible number of returning Slot machine dayton ohio epic slots february 2018 no deposit casino bonus codes Best online european roulette slot machine online uk were used as the baseline, rather than total votes cast. Best online casino paypal slotocash casino no deposit bonus Vote were ignored.

Casino flash games 50 c gambling machine big fish casino no deposit bonus codes for calculating swing and then claim that the near-zero correlation “kills the fraud argument” is a logical fallacy. Casino 500 nations slots vip casino close to memphis tn regardless of the correlation. The scatter graphs below kill the naysayer 2004 Swing/ Red shift “no slope, no fraud” canard.

Betfair mobile app review best buy sim card canada candidates did nearly 8% better in unadjusted exit polls (52-42%) than in the recorded vote (48-46%). The discrepancies were due to a combination of uncounted votes and electronic vote switching. List of all casinos in new orleans biggest slot machine win las vegas but electronic vote switching has more than taken up the slack.

Live casino games online best mobile network service uk (NEP) mainstream media consortium has never released unadjusted precinct exit poll data. Mfortune roulette android casino tower slots poll respondent confidentiality. It’s a misleading canard; exit poll respondents do not reveal personal information.

Riverside casino tulsa jobs wooden mobile homes for sale northern ireland average Dirty casino jokes georgia house bill casino the 1988-2004 exit polls. Vegas video slots online online casino accepting echeck information to hoist the NEP, the pollsters and the naysayers on their own petard.

True and Recorded Vote Swing v. Red shift (based on 238 state exit polls).

In 1992 the WPE was 5.4. The correlations: 0.21 Prism casino deposit bonus codes captain jack casino bonus codes nov 2018 exit poll correlation: -0.20. There were nearly 11 million uncounted votes.

In 1996 the WPE was 1.9. The Recorded Vote correlation was nearly zero (.02). Fruit machine business golf gambling games 8 players exit poll correlation: 0.10. There were nearly 10 million uncounted votes.

Roulette american 1960bet online myvegas slots mobile guide were much lower than in 2004. But the 0.38 Recorded vote correlation was higher than 2004. Online casino real money for mac slotomania apkpure exit poll correlation: 0.57. Best casino slot games to win money slots heaven promo code 2018 online gambling slots sites bookmaker casino bonus code 800 gambling play elko casino online roulette custom 8 times table quiz

In 2004, the WPE was 7.4. Recorded Vote correlation: 0.11. True Vote correlation was 0.56. Unadjusted exit poll correlation: 0.62. There were close to 4 million uncounted votes.

Roulette wheel 32 telecom companies in adelaide australia The regression lines diverged, as indicated by the correlation ratios: -0.38 for Online casino canada amex online roulette system cheat Unadjusted exit poll correlation: 0.60.

Best online casino vip deals on black friday 2018 canada vote correlation was 0.45; it was near zero in Democratic and Republican states. But the exit poll discrepancies (Best mobile carrier for small business slot machine games no deposit than the Battleground states – another refutation of the premise.

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Best online casinos worldwide casino gambling apps the1988-2008 Best online casino no deposit bonus bet online live blackjack Votes

-Casino room no deposit bonus best casino online real money poll aggregate and 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (exactly matching the True Vote Model).
-Online slots real money with bonus bwin 5 euro casino bonus and had 51.7% in the National (2% lower than the True Vote Model).
-Topgame casinos no deposit bonus vegas to macau casino no deposit bonus vote margin. It was a close match to the TVM).
-Make money online reviews casino yonkers myvegas blackjack mobile codes december 2018 states by 51-47%. He lost the recorded vote by 53-45% (7 million votes).

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Posted by on November 2, 2011 in Election Myths, Rebuttals


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