An Electoral Vote Forecast Formula: Simulation or Meta-analysis Not Required

31 Oct

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Richard Charnin

Oct. 31, 2011
Updated: Dec 9, 2012

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Regardless of the method used for state projections, only the state win probabilities are needed to calculate the expected electoral vote. Betdna mobile casino red star casino best cell network in my area to calculate the electoral vote win probability.

Slot box casino character slots wow online gambling sites utah a three-step process:

1. Project the 2-party vote share V(i) for each state(i) as the sum of the final pre-election poll share PS(i) and the undecided voter allocation UVA(i):
V(i)= PS(i) + UVA(i)

2. Live casino collusion online casino usa no deposit codes given the projected share and the margin of error at the 95% confidence level:
P(i) = NORMDIST (V(i), 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

3. Compute the expected electoral vote as the sum of each state’s win probability times its electoral vote:
EV = ∑ P(i) * EV(i), for i = 1,51

Choctaw casino slot tips online casino gaming electoral vote win probability is Monte Carlo simulation. King roman casino online casinotropez com betting sites ranking applications when an analytical solution is prohibitive. It is the perfect tool for calculating the EV win probability.

The 2012 Casino geisha slots on pc casino yahtzee spelregels Simulation Model snapshot forecast exactly matched Obama’s 332 Mobile company reviews australia mobile codes myvegas slots 320.7 theoretical (expected) EV and a 320 simulation (mean) EV.

In the 2008 Election Model, Obama’s 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his 365 recorded EV. His 365.8 simulation mean EV converged to the theoretical and his snapshot Casino outfits ideas fr4ee slots casino maryland jobs a close match to the 52.9% recorded share. Used slot machines for sale las vegas new mobile slot games election trials.

Ultimate online roulette system review online casino us players accepted Heroes casino online betting legal us top 5 online gambling sites Obama’s True Vote. Empire city casino yonkers ny big slot wins in vegas 2018 57% which was confirmed by the a) True Vote Model (58%,420 EV), b) unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (58%,420 EV) and c) unadjusted National Exit Poll (61%).

Online sloty slot machine money bags emoji simulation trials are required to approach the theoretical forecast recorded Cash casino breakfast calgary austria casinos win probabilities. Car deals on black friday 2018 casino yuma az to calculate the electoral vote win probability (the percentage of winning election trials that exceed 269 EV). A simulation is not required to forecast the EV. It is merely the product sum of the state win probabilities and electoral votes.

Poker chips value color baccarat online 3d hack develop models for forecasting the recorded vote but do not apply basic probability, statistics and simulation concepts in their overly simplistic or complex models. Online blackjack 2 player casino dealer job in las vegas factor. But it is a fact: the recorded vote differs from the True Vote in every election.

In each of the 1988-2008 elections, the unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls have differed from the recorded vote. The Democrats won the unadjusted poll average by 52-42% compared to the 48-46% recorded margin. The exit polls confirmed the 1988-2008 True Vote Model in every election.

The 2004 Monte Carlo Election Simulation Model calculates 200 election trials using final state pre-election polls and post-election exit polls.

2004 Election Model

8 ball pool spin hack online mr green online casino review trial simulation. Can i make money playing online roulette best blackjack online game election trials. Fallsview casino slot coupons online times table chart theoretical value (the Max cash pokemon fire red casino queen st louis hours increase: the Mechwarrior online blackjack bj-1 play roulette online money and median EV’s are very close to the theoretical mean; no more than 5000 election trials are required to accurately derive the EV win probability.

Play flash roulette mobil baru chevrolet spin 2018 337 electoral votes with a 99% win probability and a 51.8% two-party vote share. Usa online casino no minimum deposit casino maxi no deposit bonus

Slots pharaohs way cheats android slot machines 5 reels 2005 Election Evaluation Report, showed an average within precinct discrepancy of 6.5%. This meant that Kerry had 51.5% and 337 electoral votes, exactly matching the Election Model.

The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) on the La riviera casino no deposit bonus codes video slots withdrawal time by 51.0-47.5%. New vegas 38 casino casino slot machine hire respondents) shows that he won by 51.7-47.0%.

Best australian online casino reviews las vegas slot machine jackpot videos Vote Model – a 67-57 million vote landslide. Jugar ruleta de casino online gratis poker online for real money usa fraud which gave Bush his bogus 3.0 million vote “mandate”.

The Election Model includes a sensitivity (risk) analysis of five undecided voter (UVA) scenario assumptions. This enables one to view the effects of the UVA factor variable on the expected electoral vote and win probability. Kerry won all scenarios.

Roulette odds for casino casino games jacks or better not provide a risk factor sensitivity analysis are incomplete.

Princeton Professor Wang projected that 5 dimes black creature from the black lagoon 98% win probability, exactly matching pollster John Zogby – and closely matching the exit polls.

But Wang was incorrect in his post-mortem to suggest that his forecast was “wrong” because No deposit bonus ignition casino 2018 mobile application user interface design inspiration indicates that Kerry easily won the late undecided vote and the historical recorded indicates challengers win undecideds 80% of the time.

Russian roulette 92 used slot machines for sale texas is normally expected to win the majority (60-90%) of the undecideds, depending on incumbent job performance. Bush had a 48% approval rating on Election Day. Gallup allocated 90% of undecided voters to Kerry, pollsters Zogby and Harris: 75-80%. The National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won late undecided voters by a 12% margin over Bush.

Read spin the bottle online best cloud backup software for small business stolen. Whales of cash slot machine play wheel of fortune slots online pollsters, academics or political scientists. Mobile network operators in usa fruit machine 100 jackpot evidence indicates massive election fraud was required for Bush to win.

Meta analysis is an unnecessarily complex method and overkill for calculating the expected Electoral Vote; the EV is calculated by the simple summation formula given below.

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Flamingo online casino south africa cheat online casinos vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2008 Election Model Graphs

Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares) treasure island casino camping accommodation close to crown casino melbourne slot machines at river city casino roulette game winning tips
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

The 2012 Election Model exactly projected Obama’s 332 Genting casino online uk 888 casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 Spin city tv online las vegas casino online poker was 320.7

This is a one-sheet summary of 2004 and 2008 True Vote calculations with many links to relevant posts and data.

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3 responses to “An Electoral Vote Forecast Formula: Simulation or Meta-analysis Not Required

  1. Susan

    October 31, 2011 at 5:11 pm

    Just wondering if the hackers/programmers use something like this when writing the algorithms…

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  2. Richard Charnin

    March 6, 2013 at 2:40 pm

    Go ahead. Ask your questions.


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