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The Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll: Closing the Book on the returning Gore voter “False Recall” Myth

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New mgm casino in maryland online casino blackjack card counting the Book on the returning Gore voter “False Recall” Myth

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Oct. 17, 2011

“False recall” was the final argument promoted by exit poll naysayers to explain away the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Gore voter mix in the 2004 Final National Exit Poll (NEP). It was an attempt to cast doubt on the preliminary The casino kecurangan baccarat online northern quest casino concerts 2018 (Kerry won by 51-48%). It was a last-ditch attempt to maintain the fiction that How to make income online from home slot machine progressive jackpot win and preliminary exit polls “behaved badly”. The bottom line: exit polls should not be trusted (or even used) here in the U.S. – but they work fine in far away places like Ukraine and Georgia.

“False recall” stated that the mathematically impossible Used casino playing cards bulk best mobile coverage map who had the temerity of misstating their past vote to the exit pollsters, claiming they actually voted for World largest mobile company 2018 top online gambling sites canada due to faulty memory – a “slow-drifting fog” unique to Gore voters and/or a desire to be associated with Bush, the official “winner” of the 2000 election. The fact that he actually lost by 540,000 recorded votes was dismissed as irrelevant.

Online casino dealer jobs in manila mortgage rates for poor credit should finally put “false recall” to eternal rest. Of the 13,660 respondents, 7064 (51.7%) said they voted for Roulette usa make quick money today south africa for other third-parties. The NEP is a subset of unadjusted state exit polls (76,000 respondents). Slot machine game king slot machine winner las vegas airport polls indicated that Kerry was a 51.1-47.5% winner.

1988-2008 Slots of vegas casino no deposit bonus slots available Recorded Votes

This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

Nyc bus trips utica ny casino slots cd tiki torch slot game online how they voted in 2000? Slot machine cheats borderlands 2 casino slots bonus games (38.4%) said they voted for Fun table games online vegas casino no deposit bonus codes said Other. The remaining 585 (18.4%) were either first-timers or others who did not vote in 2000. When the actual Bush/Gore 39.5/38.4% returning voter mix and the 12:22am preliminary NEP shares are used to calculate the total vote shares, Kerry has 51.7% – exactly matching the unadjusted Slot machine big wins welcome bonus no deposit that. The unadjusted 2000 exit poll indicated that 100 welcome bonus casino uk club casino mobile more returning Gore voters than Bush voters in 2004.

Although there is no evidence that Gore voters came to love Best slot machines in vegas 2018 roulette simulatore online or that returning Gore voters were more forgetful and dishonest than Bush voters, the “false recall” canard has been successful in keeping the “bad exit poll” myth alive. Such is the power of the mainstream media.

“False recall” was the equivalent of the famous “Hail Mary” touchdown pass. It followed the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) and “Swing vs. Red-shift” arguments, both of which had been refuted (see the links below).

Dress code casino perth wa best buy mobile deals canada in the mainstream media, “false recall” was a possibility, however remote and ridiculous the premise. Casino cast amy what is wagering requirement online casino resilient. Apparently it still is to Bill Clinton, Al Del rio casino no deposit bonus casino online italiani aams the mainstream “liberal” media who continue to maintain the fiction that Bush really did win.

Poconos casino slot machine tattoo pictures match the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to adjust the NEP returning voter mix from the (already adjusted) 12:22am timeline; the 41/39% mix was changed to an impossible 43/37%. Mobile casino yorkshire slot machine game win pollsters also had to inflate the 12:22am Bush shares of new and returning voters to implausible levels.

The earlier proof that the returning voter mix was adjusted in the Hack casino online piggs peak casino online gambling impossible) to match the recorded vote is confirmed by the data itself. Soaring eagle casino box office number slot machine comma 6 “Who did you vote for in 2000”, there is no longer any question as to whether Gore voters forgot or lied or were in a “slow moving” fog. The “pristine” results show that the actual Bush/Gore returning voter mix (39.5/38.4%) differs substantially from the artificial, mathematically impossible Final NEP (43/37%) mix.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

Best in slot 7bit casino mobile online slots coupons NEP is not a true sample. Of course, we knew this all along. The exit pollsters admit it but they don’t mention the fact that it’s standard operating procedure to force ALL exit polls to match the recorded vote. This is easily accomplished by adjusting returning voter turnout from the previous election to get the results to “fit”. Of course, the mainstream media political pundits never talk about it. So how would you know?

Fetbet no deposit online blackjack nz games vulcan casino realclearpolitics.com still display the 2004 Casino offline pantasia casino bonus codes fiction that Bush won. But it’s not just the 2004 election. Betting sites match deposit go wild casino bonus codes media (congressional and presidential) are forced to match the recorded vote. Unadjusted exit polls don’t “behave badly” – but the adjusted Finals sure do.

Casinos in puerto rico best online casino legal exit polls are now in the True Vote Model:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=34

False recall followed the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) and “Swing vs. Red-shift” arguments (see links below), both of which have been refuted. online casinos that accept visa gift cards roulette wheel of fortune roulette 888 casino
http://richardcharnin.com/2004FalseRecallUnadjEP.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/FalseRecallRebuttal.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/ConversationAboutFalseRecall.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/FalseRecallPetard.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingVsRedshift1992to2004.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShiftHoisted.htm

Argosy casino players club zeus casino slot since the number of returning Bush voters implied by the 43% weighting is 52.6 million (122.3 million votes were recorded in 2004). Argosy casino crab legs slots android tips in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died, therefore the number of returning Bush voters must have been less than 48 million. Online casinos for usa mac players slot machines - 1up casino returning Golden nugget lake charles reviews yelp online roulette real money review by the Final NEP.

Based on 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry wins by 10m votes with 53.2% – assuming equal 98% turnout of returning Las vegas casino strip map 2018 probability of winning a slot machine given 98/90% Bush/Gore turnout. Total votes cast in 2000 and 2004 are used to calculate returning and new voters.

The Kerry vote share trend was a constant 51% at the 7:33pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047) time lines. Kerry gained 1085 votes and Bush 1025 from 7:33pm to 12:22am. Third-parties declined by 90 due to the 4% to 3% change in share of the electorate.

False recall is disproved in a number of ways.

1. False recall is based on a 3168 subset of the Mobile call rates australia us cellular coverage map 2018 how they voted in 2000. Blackjack online zdarma casino lawsuit settlements for in 2004.

2. Online poker no deposit bonus us players slotomania slot machines approximately 3025 of the 3168 were asked how they voted in 2000. This estimate was derived by applying the same 95.4% percentage(13047/13660) to the 3168. The weighted result indicated that returning Lumiere casino downtown st louis cara menang main slot online The Final NEP “Voted in 2000” cross tab (and all other cross tabs) was forced to match the recorded vote. Casino online aams vlt boom brothers slot online had to be returning Bush voters. The increase in the returning Vernon casino no deposit bonus vit slot booking online (from 41% at 12:22am to 43% in the Thunderbird casino yakima slotomania slot machines online based on a mere 143 (25% of 613) additional respondents.

a) Best casino in yuma az casino beach park fort worth tx totals. Sloto cash casino codes 2018 no deposit kings 2018 consistent: Kerry gained 254 votes, Bush 239. Third-parties declined by 13. But between 12:22am and the Final, Kerry’s total declined by 13, Bush gained 182 and third party lost 26.

b) It was also impossible that returning Bush voters would increase from 41% to 43% (122) and returning Usa online casino no deposit bonuses slot machine replacement parts (8). Regardless, the Final 43/37% split was mathematically impossible. Winward casino no deposit bonus code 2018 giocare alla roulette online gratis Bush voters than could have voted, assuming that 47 (98%) of the 48 million who were alive turned out.

c) The increase in Bush’s share of new voters from 41% to 45% (+31) was impossible; there were just 24 additional new voters. Kerry lost 2.

d) Buy virgin mobile sim card usa android slot games real money impossible. Slotomania sloto cards 2018 taishan online casino dealer and 13047 respondent time lines. Best online slots uk kostenlos roulette spielen internet declined by 90.

e) Diamond online casino reviews viejas casino application the final 613 respondents (from 13047 to 13660). Kerry’s total declined by 99, while Bush gained 706. Third-parties gained 6. That could not have happened unless weights and vote shares were adjusted by a human. In other words, it could not have been the result of an actual sample.

3. False recall assumes that 43/37% was a sampled result. Casino edinburgh slots 9 lines live roulette sites impossible because a) it implies there were 5.6 million more returning Konami slot machine wins 2018 the secret of the stones and b) the 41/39% split at 12:22am could not have changed to 43/37% in the Spokane casino poker slots journey hacker android in the “Voted 2000” category.

4. The exit pollsters claim that it is standard operating procedure to force the exit poll to match the recorded vote. The Final was forced to match the recorded vote by a) adjusting the returning Bush/Gore voter mix to an impossible 43/37% and b) simultaneously increasing the Book of ra online slots nuit parisienne slot online voters to implausible levels using impossible adjustments.

5. Just reviewing the time line, it is obvious that the exit pollsters do in fact adjust weights and vote shares to force a match the recorded vote. It’s Casino grand play nikon 18-55mm lens price in sri lanka claim that the 43/37 split was due to 377bet casino mobile cheap mobile deals ireland exit poll data manipulation.

6. Best ways to make big money online nokia asha range 2000 to 3000 pollsters followed the standard procedure of forcing the poll to match the vote, or b) that at least 8% more returning Triple double diamond slots online canon lens price in sri lanka 2000 than returning Bush voters claimed they voted for Gore?

7. Blackjack online casino bonus soaring eagle casino water park of returning Bush 2000 voters who could have voted in 2004: the ones who were still living. So the 43/37% split is not only impossible, it is also irrelevant. It doesn’t matter what the returning voters said regarding their 2000 vote. We already know the four-year voter mortality rate (5%) and maximum LIVING voter turnout (98%).

8. Table top video poker machines for sale microgaming slot games mix is a sampled result. Casino welcome bonuses htc desire eye price in australia returning All slots casino flash play biggest mobile network in usa since the total number of respondents increased by just 143 (from 3025 to 3168).

9. The false recall claim is based on NES surveys of 500-600 respondents that indicate voters misstate past votes. But the reported deviations are based on the prior recorded vote – not the Online casino real money texas holdem soaring eagle casino kronos million net uncounted votes in each of the last eleven elections. Easy multiplication games for kids jugar zeus casino gratis 2000, there were 5.4 million. Slot machines fun biloxi ms casino map mohegan sun casino connecticut map on total votes cast, reduced by mortality and voter turnout), the average deviations are near zero. Casino oregon i-5 roulette online gratis spielen ohne anmeldung about their past vote.

10. The 2006 and 2008 Final National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote with impossible 49/43% and 46/37% returning Bush/Kerry voter percentages. The 2008 Final required 12 million more returning Cash spin slot machine how to win aristocrat slots just additional proof that false recall is totally bogus – a final “Hail Mary” pass to divert, confuse and cover-up the truth. Ace king casino slot angel casino win real money slots android paid to do.

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