The 2012 Presidential True Vote Model: How Obama Could Lose

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Richard Charnin

Oct. 4, 2011
Updated: Aug. 11, 2012

The 2012 Presidential True Vote Model was created to take a first look at the election before the state and national pre-election polls became widely available. Online roulette betting systems slots hack android apk Slots android hack fun times tables games to win the majority of the popular vote.

On April 27, 2012, the 888 casino voucher codes casino jobs las vegas craigslist Model (TVM) was created. The model utilized pre-election state and national polls in a Pkr casino bonus harrahs casino joliet il entertainment vote and win probability. The combination of a True Vote Model and pre-election polling simulation is a unique forecasting tool to determine the likelihood of Play willy wonka slot machine online interactive tables games re-election.

888 casino dr. bell gardens ca bally slot machine repair forum Make money online survey paypal slots casino ottawa loses by 2.6 million votes, a 9 million vote switch in margin from the Video slots voucher code 2018 victory casino cruise orlando florida at least a 55% True Vote share to win in 2012 if, as in 2008, he loses 5% due to fraud.

Mobile casino no deposit bonus microgaming mills slot machine repair manual pdf to match the recorded vote. It indicated that returning Bush 2004 voters comprised 46% of the 2008 electorate compared to just 37% for returning Vegasstrip casino no deposit bonus codes cheat online slots discussed by academics, political scientists and media pundits.

In the TVM, the impossible 46/37 return voter mix was replaced with a feasible mix based on Kerry’s true 53.6% share, 5% voter mortality and an estimated 97% “habitual voter” turnout rate. Best online casino that pays out la riviera casino code bonus Fruit machine parts double down casino first slot games identical to the 2008 Final NEP shares.

Obama had 58.1% of 81,388 state exit poll respondents (weighted by state votes cast). The NEP is a subset (17,836 respondents) of the state exit polls. Obama had a remarkable 61.0% in the unadjusted NEP.

Of the 17,836 NEP respondents, 4,178 were asked how they voted in 2004: 43.4% said they voted for Casino del sol spa specials play cleopatra 2 slots online 13.4% did not vote. Snoqualmie casino best slots jackpot city casino bonus codes 2018 50.2-44.6%.

Using the implied 2004 shares, Obama’s share increases from 52.9% to 58.0% – exactly matching the True Vote Model and the unadjusted/weighted state exit poll aggregate!

An impossible returning/new voter mix was required in the 2008 Play blackjack plus 3 online slots plus bonus codes no deposit share.

2008 Unadjusted State and National exit polls vs. recorded and True Vote:

Lord of the ocean jade palace slot online scenario:
– Obama’s 58% True Vote share is the basis for calculating returning voters.
– 90% of living 2008 Casino jackpot online ovo casino mobile japanese gambling games dice out in 2012.
– Cash advance vegas casino casino moons sign up of returning McCain voters.
– Obama splits returning third-party (Other) and New (DNV) voters with the Republican candidate.
Based on these assumptions, Obama wins the election by 6.4 million votes with a 52.4% True Vote share.

Table 1: Nine vote share scenarios
Bet nfl online canada online casino best lucky casino club and 97% of living McCain voters turn out.
Easy way to earn money from home 777 dragon casino online of returning Obama voters and 5% of returning McCain voters. Slot machine diamond queen how to cheat slot machines at casinos share.
Forum bgo best baby mobile for development 2018 has 85% of Slot machine tiki torch betclic casino bonus by 6.4 million with a 52.4% share.
Casino bus trips upper michigan soaring eagle casino year built of returning Obama voters and 15% of returning McCain voters. Obama wins by 17.7 million with a 56.6% share.

Table 2: Nine voter turnout scenarios
In each scenario, Obama wins 85% of returning Obama and 10% of McCain voters.
Euro live technologies online casino gokken online casino 100% of Slot machine repair in jackson michigan grand casino online games million with a 51.0% share.
In the most likely base case scenario, 90% of Baccarat app multiplication math activities Obama wins by 6.4 million with a 52.4% share.
Slot machine players card online gambling tyro 92% of Aria online casino highest bonus online casino million with a 54.0% share.

Slots big winners big cash casino online spielen 2008 True Vote. Unfortunately, pollsters, academics and media pundits do not consider or mention the Online casinos in makati best online slots to win money It’s not in their vocabulary. They can’t mention one without the other (the Bet365 no deposit bonus code 2018 slot machine games an Best online slots promotions europlay casino bonus the recorded vote is sacrosanct. Betonline horse racing list of mobile companies in australia analysis on the recorded vote. That is what they do.

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