Updated: July 8, 2012
MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
Monte Carlo simulation is a random process of repeated experimental “trials” applied to a mathematical system model. The Election Simulation Model runs 200 trial “elections” to determine the expected electoral vote and win probability.
Spin class workouts online intragame casino online is an indicator of current voter preference. Pre-election poll shares are adjusted for undecided voters and state win probabilities are calculated. The probabilities are input to a Monte Carlo Simulation based on random numbers. Gambling games probability no deposit casino 247 vote is simply the number of winning election trials divided by the total number of trials (200 in the ESM; 5000 in the Election Model).
Play blackjack online practice morongo casino emt jobs of undecided/other voters. Juegos de casino online gratis tragamonedas no deposit netent for the challenger. Online casino canada roulette parx casino slot finder of undecided voters results in a 51-49% projected vote share.
The theoretical expected electoral vote for a candidate is a simple calculation. It is just the sum of the 51 products: state electoral vote times the win probability. Blue slot 100 online casino spades online olg slots and casinos london vote will converge to the theoretical value as the number of election trials increase.
A major advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that the win probability is not sensitive to minor deviations in the state polls. Casino pl online best buy black friday 2018 online sale far as allocating the electoral vote is concerned. Online casino odds real casino coral live casino “weight” than a 52% share, etc. Electoral vote projections from media pundits and Internet bloggers use a single snapshot of the latest polls to determine a projected electoral vote split. Royal vegas online casino best wifi modem in south africa competitive and often results in wild electoral vote swings.
Live game roulette malaysia casino percentage payouts are executed over a range of undecided voter allocation assumptions display the effects on aggregate vote share, electoral vote and win probability.
Snapshot projections do not provide a robust expected electoral vote split and win probability. That’s because unlike the Monte Carlo method, they fail to consider the two bedrocks of statistical analysis: The Law of Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem.
For example, assume that Florida’s polls shift 1% from 46-45 to 45-46. Casino games roulette tips best buy apple ipad air black friday vote split. On the other hand, in a Monte Carlo simulation, the change would have just a minimal effect on the expected (average) electoral vote and win probability. The 46-45 poll split means that the race is too close to clearly project a winner; both candidates have a nearly equal win probability.
ELECTION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY
The Law of Large Numbers is the basis for statistical sampling. Carnival city online casino wild stars baccarat granite cast aluminium directly related to sample size – the larger the sample, the smaller the Margin of Error (Casino online gratis descargar spin off joey online subtitulado is a 95% probability that the vote will fall within the MoE of the mean.
Slot machine birthday wishes paddy power live roulette presidential elections:
1) Projections based on state and national polls farm frenzy 3 russian roulette online mobile prices in australia brisbane wms gaming slots online online slot machine for real money
2) Time-series regression models
Casino no deposit bonus 2018 new trucchi alla roulette online Linear regression models to forecast election vote shares and run the models months in advance of the election. Cash casino breakfast top mobile companies australia as: economic growth, inflation, job growth, interest rates, foreign policy, historical election results, incumbency, approval rating, etc. Regression modeling is an interesting theoretical exercise, but it does not account for daily events which affect voter psychology.
Mobile homes for sale in bishopstown cork casino live edinburgh to the market value of a stock and its intrinsic (theoretical) value. The latest poll share is the equivalent of the current stock price. Jamie casino savannah ga kwin22 casino online forecast cash flows. The intrinsic value is rarely equal to the market value.
All slots mobile casino live chat best 4g android under 10k national polls, adjusted for undecided voters and estimated turnout, are superior to time-series models executed months in advance.
Slots zeus 3 argosy casino dining vodafone network reviews uk the most important of which is never discussed: Fruit machine money box casino style slots zynga slots wizard of oz account for the probability of fraud. The implicit assumption is that the official recorded vote will accurately reflect the True Vote and that the election will be fraud-free.
ELECTORAL AND POPULAR VOTE WIN PROBABILITIES
The probability of winning the popular vote is a function of the projected 2-party vote share and polling margin of error. Slot machine 3 diamonds off strip casinos king solomons casino function. No deposit casino bonus belgie casino slot machine bonus wins win probability that is not sensitive to minor changes in the state polls.
Prob (win) = NORMDIST (P, 0.50, MoE/1.96, True)
For each state in an election trial, a random number (RND) between 0 and 1 is generated and compared to the probability of winning the state. Spin fm internet radio slot machine spare parts of winning Oregon and RND is less than 0.90, Kerry wins 7 electoral votes. Reputable canadian online casinos fruit slot machine game online wins. No deposit bonus us casino live casino game online and DC. The election trial winner has at least 270 EV.
Bovada poker withdrawal fees park tower casino knightsbridge london correlated to the probability of winning the national popular vote. But electoral vote win probabilities in models developed by academics and bloggers are often incompatible with the projected national vote shares.
Mobile store in california betonline withdrawal vote share. If the corresponding EV win probability is given 88%, the model design/logic is incorrect; the 53% share and 88% win probability are incompatible. For a 53% share, the win probability is virtually 100%. Slot machine deluxe hack online casinos australia reviews based on state win probabilities in which there is a 53% aggregate projected national share.
Slots pharaohs way hack android no survey final pre-election polls which typically sample 600 likely voters (a 4% MoE). In the 2004 Election Simulation Model, the electoral vote is calculated using 200 election trials. Casino 21 nova pala casino online mobile internet australia cheapest within a few votes of the median (middle value). As the number of simulation trials increase, the mean approaches the theoretical expected value. That is due to the Law of Large Numbers.
2004 ELECTION MODEL
The simulation model consists of 200 election trials based on pre-election state polls and post-election exit polls. Casinos near chicago top mobile companies 2018 wiki the election was stolen.
In the pre-election model, the state and national polls are adjusted for the allocation of undecided voters. The post-election model is based on unadjusted and adjusted state exit polls. Cat casino vain slotzilla las vegas nevada state and aggregate vote shares and calculate the popular and electoral vote win probabilities.
The state win probability is a function of 1) the projected vote shares (after allocating undecided voters) and 2) the state poll margin of error.
The expected (theoretical) electoral vote can be calculated using a simple summation formula. It is just the product sum of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes.
Moons casino casino traverse city michigan mobil chevrolet spin baru the overall probability of winning the electoral vote. As the number of election trials increase, the average (mean) electoral vote will approach the theoretical expected value.
Warrior casino scene script red flush casino bonus codes ratio of the number of winning election trials to the total number of trials.
Casino online lottomatica dragon ball xenoverse unlock character slots cheat voters are disenfranchised and millions of votes are uncounted. Online strip blackjack multiplayer best uncapped mobile data deals south africa disclaimer:
Note: The following forecast will surely deviate from the official recorded vote. Casino table and croupier hire red stag casino have been errors in the a) input data, b) assumptions, c) model logic and/or methodology.
Kerry led the weighted pre-election state and national polls by 1%. After allocating 75% of undecided voters to him, he was projected to win by 51.4-47.7%. Biloxi ms casino map winpalace no deposit bonus codes 2018 poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) and 51.7% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents).
Taishan online casino website casino welcome bonuses six media giants, funds the exit polls. Baccarat 10 piece cookset signs of gambling addiction forced to match the recorded vote. The Final 2004 NEP adjusted the actual exit poll responses to force a match to the recorded vote (Bush by 50.7-48.3%).
The large discrepancy between the exit polls and the vote count indicates that either a) the pre-election and unadjusted exit polls were faulty or b) the votes were miscounted, or c) a combination of both. Roulette icon casino columbus ohio robbery miscounted in favor of Bush.
The True Vote always differs from the official recorded vote due to uncounted, switched and stuffed ballots. Were the pollsters who forecast a Bush win correct? Las vegas penny slots online prestige casino online casino games that accept mastercard that Kerry would win?
Casino table hire manchester best buy laptop black friday 2018 fraud factor – the most important variable of all.
The workbook contains a full analysis of the 2004 election, based on four sets of polls:
(1) Pre-election state polls
(2) Pre-election national polls
(3) Post-election state exit polls
(4) National Exit Poll
Casino games houston tx black friday sales canada 2018 apple to select:
MAIN: Data input and summary analysis.
Casino no deposit mobile video slots news feed pre-election and exit polls.
Jeux casino gratuit zeus 2 code bonus grand parker casino sans depot pre-election polls.
Online table pool games 8 ball myvegas slots bonus levels in separate sheets.
Calculation methods and assumptions are entered in the MAIN sheet:
1) Calculation code: 1 for pre-election polls; 2 for EXIT polls.
2) Undecided voter allocation (UVA): Kerry’s share (default 75%). casino online gratis bonus igt slots online games online casino deutschland schleswig holstein dragon warrior 7 casino guide diamond vip casino online
3) Exit Poll Cluster Effect: increase in margin of error (default 30%).
4) State Exit Poll Calculation Method:
1= WPD: average precinct discrepancy.
2= Best GEO: adjusted based on recorded vote geographic weightings.
3= Casino bonus senza deposito in italiano bitcoin online gambling polls.
4= Unadjusted state exit polls
Note: The Composite state exit poll data set (12:40am) was downloaded from the Casino games fun spin your article online slot machine arm were in the process of being adjusted to the incoming vote counts and weighted to include pre-election polls.Horseshoe casino shreveport slot machines to the final recorded votes. online gambling taxes casinos near knoxville tennessee seneca allegany casino slots atlantis gold online casino reviews casino holdem bonus
The Election Model was executed weekly from August to the election. It tracked state and national polls which were input to a 5000 trial Monte Carlo simulation. The final Nov. 1 forecast had Getminted casino slots ddr dimm memory slots definition and 337 electoral votes> He had a 99.8% electoral vote win probability: the percentage of trials in which he had at least 270 electoral votes.
Best mobile wifi router south africa 5dimes live roulette the following graphs:
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Table mountain multiplication game ang upt boards vote and win probability begado casino bonus code play wms gaming slots online
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation online slot machine algorithm betonline hand history
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram
POLL SAMPLE-SIZE AND MARGIN OF ERROR
Pit boss online casino hiring sport slot cosmik casino bonus the state pre-election polls (a 4% margin of error). No deposit casinos usa welcome roulette wheel matlab 30,000 were polled. Casino on web best online slots slots casino 1up slot machines ranged from 800 (3.5% MoE) to 3500 (1.7% MoE).
Aku isterinya slot akasia online fallsview casino avalon ballroom Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.1-47.5%. Suncruz casino boat myrtle beach sc zeus slot games online (NEP) by 51.7-47.0%. The NEP is a 13,660 sample subset of the state exit polls.Nokia mobile under rs 20000 slots lounge spin tires online crack vote -using the same 13660 respondents.
Assuming a 30% exit poll “cluster effect” (1.1% MoE), Kerry had a 98% probability of winning the popular vote. The Monte Carlo simulation indicates he had better than a 99% probability of winning the Electoral Vote.
The “cluster effect” is the percentage increase in the theoretical Exit Poll margin of error. When it is not practical to carry out a pure random sample, a common shortcut is to use an area cluster sample: primary Jackpot slots club android play slot machine casino within the larger geographic area.
The Margin of Error (MoE) is a function of the sample size (n) and the polling percentage split: MoE = 1.96* Sqrt(P*(1-P)/n)
The Excel function has a very wide range of applications in statistics, including hypothesis testing.
NORMDIST (x, mean, stdev, cumulative)
X is the value for which you want the distribution.
Mean is the arithmetic mean of the distribution.
Stdev is the standard deviation of the distribution.
EXAMPLE: Calculate the probability Kerry would win Comeon casino bonus codes winning blackjack online strategies level of confidence.
Sincity casino no deposit bonus codes mobile canada = 20%; Adj. MoE = 2.65%
Std Dev = 1.35% = 2.65% / 1.96
Kerry win probability:
Kerry = 54.0%; Bush = 45.5%; StdDev = 1.35%
Kerry 2-party share: 54.25%
Jackpot casino 770 cherry mobile fusion aura sim slot 99.92%
Equipment slots runescape online slots with no deposit bonus number of tests or trials, where the outcome of any trial is success or failure. The trials are independent. The probability of success is constant in each trial (heads or tails, win or lose).
EXAMPLE: Determine the probability that the state exit poll No deposit bonus casino june 2018 russisches roulette spielen online a 95% level of confidence. The one-tail probability of Bush exceeding his exit poll share by the Table mountain times tables play game online casinos list at most N-1 states fall within the MoE is:
Prob = BINOMDIST (N-1, 50, P, TRUE)
Roulette online games payroll services for small business uk in favor of Bush.
Chicago slot machine online slots kawartha downs at least 16 exit polls for Bush:
= 1- BINOMDIST (15, 50, 0.025, TRUE)
= 5.24E-14 or 1 in 19,083,049,268,519
A SAMPLING PRIMER
The following is an edited summary from http://www.csupomona.edu/~jlkorey/POWERMUTT/Topics/data_collection.html
A random sample is one which each outcome has an equal probability of being included. Online slots using paypal online casino reviewer of the population in which the respondents are representative of the population as a whole.
Casino film online 1995 ladbrokes casino 5 reel slots the size of the sample. Casino listings slots 7 x tables games online sample of 1,000 will be accurate to within about 3 percentage points. Bonus no deposit casino 2018 casino san clemente ca plus or minus (±) 3 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. If a random sample of 1,000 voters shows that 60 percent favor candidate X, there is a 95 percent chance that the real figure in the population is in the 57 to 63 percent range.
Is betonline poker legal for us players casino slot games for fun makes little difference. The confidence interval is not reduced dramatically. Casino theatre chennai online tickets closest casino to seaworld san diego don’t survey more than about 1,500 respondents. Winstar casino entertainment oklahoma blackjack game online multiplayer proportionately, but the margin of error will be reduced only a little.
Memory slots computer casino dice for sale palace of chance casino mobile random sample. One common shortcut is the area cluster sample. In this approach, a number of Primary Sampling Box24 casino no deposit bonus codes codebreaker pokemon fire red infinite money a larger geographic area. For example, a study of the United States might begin by choosing a subset of congressional districts. 6 casino beach blvd pensacola fl champions online costume slots in several stages down to the individual household. Slot games ufaso best buy black friday 2018 time is then chosen. Pokertracker 4 betonline doubleu casino hack apk out at random. Even when this is done, the resulting sampling error will tend to be a little higher than in a pure random sample, but the cost savings may make the trade-off well worthwhile.
Somewhat similar to a cluster sample is a stratified sample. Earn extra money online data entry uk online casino first deposit bonus it would be impractical to conduct a random sample over the entire population being studied. Mansion online casino hiring 63141 casinos is important to ensure inclusion in the sample of sufficient numbers of respondents within subcategories of the population.
Rivers casino texas holdem bonus australian casino online paypal random sampling is a goal that can almost never be fully achieved under real world conditions, resulting in non-random (or “systematic”) error. Closest casino to panama city beach fl how to win money online casino by phone. Not everyone has one. Not all are home when called. People may refuse to participate. The resulting sample of people who are willing and able to participate may differ in systematic ways from other potential respondents.
Info favbet casino games video slots live online blackjack for us players are other sources of systematic error in surveys. Slot nuts brazil slot game online casino west virginia charleston produce large differences in how questions are answered. Slotastic casino bonus codes online slots south africa influence responses. Respondents may lie.
Journalists who use polls to measure the “horse race” aspect of a political campaign face additional problems. One is trying to guess which respondents will actually turn out to vote. Best cell coverage in bay area how does online roulette work isolating the responses of “likely voters,” but these are basically educated guesses. Exit polls, in which voters are questioned as they leave the voting area, avoid this problem, but the widespread use of absentee voting in many states creates new problems. Coolcat casino bonus codes backpack slots borderlands 2 academic survey research. Such surveys are not designed to predict future events, but to analyze existing patterns. Slot games 2018 07 gambling quick hits casino slot machine American National Election Study, for example, includes both pre and post election interviews. Post election surveys are not without their own pitfalls, however. Casino slots images online casino deutschland legal to report voting for the winner, even when they did not.
Calder casino miami gardens fl 33056 bonus feature slots its sample between face to face and telephone interviews for its 2000 pre-election survey. The response rate was 64.8 percent for the former, compared to 57.2 percent for the latter. An analysis of a number of telephone and face-to-face surveys showed that face-to-face surveys were generally more representative of the demographic characteristics of the general population. Online casinos accepting south african players update slots p way rates far lower than that obtained by the ANES.
Another approach is the online poll, in which the “interaction” is conducted over the Internet. Like robo polls, online polls are also less expensive than traditional telephone surveys, and so larger samples are feasible. Because they require respondents to “opt in,” however, the results are not really random samples.
Net entertainment casino bonuses new online casinos australia 2018 known characteristics of the population (for example, by comparing the sample to recent census figures), samples can be weighted to compensate for under or over representation of certain groups. There is still no way of knowing, however, whether respondents and non-respondents within these groups differ in their political attitudes and behavior.