Can the GOP win the Aug 16 Democratic Recall Elections?
August 16, 2011
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In the base case scenario we assume equal turnout of Obama and McCain voters, zero net defection and no fraud.
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District 12 is vulnerable.
In 2008, Obama had 52.5% in District 2 – and the GOP won the recall.
Obama had 52.8% in District 12.
Pre-election polls show Holperin winning,
Holperin will win, assuming zero fraud, zero net defection and equal turnout rates of Obama and McCain voters.
But he could still lose – if the election is stolen.
Assuming equal turnout rates of Obama and Cara menang judi online slot jogos gratis no casino slots of returning Obama voters to win.
Assuming equal turnout and zero net defection, the GOP would have to switch 4% of Holperin’s votes.
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Empire casino yonkers ny play casino and win real money the GOP needs to switch 9% of Wirch’s votes.
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