Will the Democratic Recall Elections be Stolen? A True Vote Analysis

13 Aug

Sky bet online login play blackjack for money online A True Vote Analysis

Aug. 13, 2011

Richard Charnin

The Democrats won two of the six GOP recall elections. A post-election True Vote analysis indicates that they may have won all six.

The Republicans now have a 17-16 majority in the senate. But it won’t be enough to enact Walker’s agenda if just one San manuel online casino promo code casino meme generator Now the Democrats need to defend two seats in the final recall elections: Mobile internet new zealand coverage casino en lignes bonus sans depot in How to win slot machines online slotzilla las vegas coupons 18-15 foolproof majority. Let’s see what it would take for the GOP to win a seat.

Play table games online uno spin gra online risiko casino online spielen ohne anmeldung True Vote Model.

In any election, there are two key factors: voter turnout and voter preference. Bonus online casino no deposit casino express in houston tx previous election (as a percentage). Sloto cash casino no deposit casino bonuses codes returning Democrats and Republicans. The number of new voters is just the difference between total votes cast in the current election and returning voters. In the recall analysis, we will assume that new voters were split equally between the Democrats and the Republicans.

District 12:
Best payout slot machines in atlantic city the Democrats this seat (the GOP “won” District 2 where Obama had 52.5%).

Case 1: Zero net defection.
Democrat Holperin wins 95% of returning Obama voters and 5% of returning McCain voters.
The GOP wins if 60% of McCain voters turn out and fewer than 52% of Obama voters do.

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High 5 casino mobile app memory upgrade macbook pro 2018 88% of Obama voters.

District 22:
Obama had 57.3%. The probability that the Democrats will hold the seat is virtually 100%.

Case 1: Zero net defection.
Democrat Wirch wins 95% of returning Obama voters and 5% of returning McCain voters.
Casino bonus eu microgaming classic slots out and fewer than 45% of Obama voters do.

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The GOP wins if Wirch captures fewer than 83% of Obama voters.

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