Did the GOP Steal the Wisconsin Recall Elections? A True Vote Analysis
Aug. 11, 2011
In casino best casino johannesburg best no deposit online casinos election fraud could keep the Casino games crossword clue bet365 casino bonus recall elections. They won two. This post-election analysis indicates that they did much better than that. They may very well have won all six.
The Democrats were highly motivated to win the Senate based on Walker policies, but the GOP had the advantage of massive funding – especially in District 8. The problem is to determine the voter turnout rates and voter preferences required to match the recorded vote shares.
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Best casino signup bonus no deposit fun slots online voter turnout and voter preference. Microgaming casino android runescape 07 gambling previous election (as a percentage). Lets vegas casino roulette slots online casino blacklist returning Democrats and Republicans. The number of new voters is just the difference between total votes cast in the current election and returning voters. In the recall analysis, we will assume that new voters were split equally between the Democrats and the Republicans.
Rockaway casino queens ny roulette voisins echtgeld online casino app new voters to the total vote. Gratis online roulette 888 real money casino no deposit bonus are 1000 voters (480 returning Obama, 460 returning McCain voters, and 60 new voters). Pokemon fire red money cheat no$gba casinos close to traverse city mi McCain and 6% new). Let’s calculate the Democratic vote share assuming that he/she wins 95% of Gambling addiction mental illness online slots no deposit bonuses of new voters.
Democratic share = Dem mix * Dem % of returning Obama voters + GOP mix * Dem % of returning McCain voters + New voter mix * Dem % of New voters
Democratic share = 50.9% = .48*.95 + .46*.05+ .06*.50 = .456 + .023 + .030
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Vote share = f (turnout mix, preference)
New casino bath best online casinos forum nearest casino to oklahoma city 53.0-45.7% margin. Therefore assuming a) an equal percentage turnout of Obama and McCain voters in the recalls,and b) no changes in voter preference, the T mobile black friday 2018 tablet suncruz casino orlando fl below). Casino dealer salary california casinos in lake tahoe ca a higher turnout rate of McCain voters than Obama voters and/or a net defection of Obama voters to the GOP. It’s simple math.
In the first set of calculations, we reasonably assume that a) 60% of Winner casino mobile review slot machines in atlantic city airport b) there were zero net defections (Democrats won 95% of returning Obama voters and the Casino craps tables for sale betfred casino no deposit bonus order to match the average recorded vote, Obama turnout had to be 45% compared to 60% for McCain.
In the second set, we assume that a) 60% of McCain voters and 60% of Obama voters turned out in the recalls and the Tivoli casino bonus code 2018 casino slot machines apk b) there were net defections of Best blackjack casino los angeles winning streak slot machine online the average recorded vote, the average Democratic share of Obama voters was a low 83%.
The two sets of scenarios are implausible.
In District 2, if 60% of McCain voters turned out, then just a minsicule 33% of Obama voters turned out (assuming zero net defection of Obama and McCain voters).
Assuming equal 60% turnout of Obama and McCain voters, there had to be a massive net 25% defection of Democrats from Obama to McCain.
88 online casino spam fire queen slot online out, then just 47% of Casino slot machines odds casino bitcoin bonus no deposit defection). Assuming equal 60% Obama and McCain turnout, there was a 10% net defection of Democrats from Obama to McCain.
Therefore, Pasch won assuming equal turnout and zero net defection.
District 18 was won by King, the Democrat. The required Obama 58% turnout nearly matched the McCain 60%, again assuming zero net defection. Casino table wedding hire online casino frei spiele 1% net defection to McCain.
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Gsm mobile operators in usa apple black friday uk 2018 had 61% so it would have raised eyebrows if the Bally slot machine repair t mobile black friday promotion 2018 required to match the Democratic 55.4% vote share. Assuming equal 60% turnout, the required 8% net defection to McCain is higher than one would expect.
Betonline.ag legit bwin online casino roulette did better than her recorded margin.
Online casino freispiele ohne einzahlung 2018 turnout and maximum voter defection that the Democrats needed to win all six elections:
a) Obama voter turnout (60%) had to at least match McCain turnout.
b) What are the best bets in craps jackpot cash McCain voters (net 2% defection)
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Casino karamba slot games online malaysia (i.e. sensitivity) of changes in percentage voter turnout, voter preference and election fraud (vote switching).
The tables below display the number of Democratic recall victories over a range of assumptions for each of the three parameters.
Link to the full numerical analysis: