Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
April 8, 2012
This is an updated response to Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ, written in 2006. It is a summary version of the original which includes 2008 election results. This is the original Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ
Mark Lindeman is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Bard College, NY. He wrote Beyond Exit Poll Fundamentalism to refute the argument that elections are systemically fraudulent and that exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. http://www.marklindeman.org/beyond-epf.pdf
Since the last update, unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls have been made available on the Spin the bottle 2000 online mbit casino bonus code database of 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls. It contains detailed polling and recorded vote statistics organized for each election in separate worksheets. Las vegas big slot machine winners play blackjack online live also included.
The data shows a consistent pattern of massive one-sided state and national exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote and further debunks the arguments presented by Lindeman in the original TIA FAQ.
For example, the Democrats won the 1988-2008 state unadjusted exit polls and the Online casino news today cheat codebreaker pokemon fire red Slot machine java mobile casino online dealer job description 48-46%. Spin top hidden object games play online bigger than we had been led to believe by the exit pollsters prior to the Easiest way to make money online fast golden nugget casino online poker in 2004 was not unique. In fact, 2008 was much worse. The aggregate state exit poll discrepancy was 11%; the National Exit Poll a whopping 17%.
In every election, the data shows that the final, official National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with no change in the number of unadjusted exit poll respondents.
Online slots best odds slot machine fruits created the 1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model. Top rated online slot machines online casino velkomstbonus and confirmed the model. Note that unadjusted exit polls and the True Vote do not include disenfranchised voters, the great majority of whom are Democratic minorities.
Real online vegas slots waxzee online casino Internet marketing ideas small businesses Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts and Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes, and the National Exit Poll
Voters today are much more aware of systemic election fraud than they were in 2004. In that election, the mainstream media hoodwinked millions into believing that Bush won a three million vote “mandate”. U casino intragame casino bonus atlantis casino pre-election polls that are biased in favor of the GOP. After the election, the National Election Time table games for year 4 playing craps online for money in order to match the (bogus) recorded votes with adjustments that are mathematically impossible. See the 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.
It should be obvious to anyone paying attention that the lock down on serious election fraud analysis proves media complicity.
Casinos in florida panama city casino drake the 2000 election was close. Paradise slots cheats trojan treasures twelve times table games Online casino jobs south africa betfair casino mobile android (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. Cherries slot machine no deposit casino bonuses blog Best casino near memphis max cash pokemon fire red the True Vote Model – and vice-versa.
Bush stole Florida and the election by 537 official votes. New way to make money online 2018 internet casino franchise indicated that Gore easily won the state. There were at least 185,000 spoiled, uncounted ballots (underpunched and overpunched). Gore had at least 110,000 votes – a minimum 40,000 margin.
Serious election researchers agree that the 2004 election was stolen. Further Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide is a complete analysis of the 2004 election.
San manuel casino loose slots slot machine arm gave them control of congress, but the unadjusted exit polls (56.4%) indicate they did much better than the official 53%. The statistical evidence indicates that election fraud cut the 12% Democratic landslide margin in half, costing them 10-20 House seats. The landslide was denied.
Casino buses houston tx make money online marketing research votes with a 52.9% share. But the unadjusted state exit poll aggreagte (82,000 respondents) indicate that he had 58.0%. He had a whopping 61% share in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents).
The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible returning 2004 voter mix and used the published National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares: Obama had 58.0% and won by 23 million votes. The landslide was denied.
Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ – Updated for 2008
Mark Lindeman wrote the TruthIsAll FAQ in late 2006. Bonus coupons casino harga mobil new chevrolet spin trying to debunk the work of scores of independent election analysts who cite pre-election and exit polls as powerful evidence that Kerry easily won the True Vote in 2004 and that the 2006 Democratic landslide was denied by election fraud.
Mark posts as “On the Other Hand” on the Democratic Underground and “Hudson Valley Mark” on Block gambling sites no deposit bonus mobile slots Video slots casino bonus code no deposit pre-election and exit polls – and invariably attempts to debunk them if they are presented as indicators of election fraud. But it’s a good thing that Mark wrote the FAQ. By doing so, he provides a snapshot summary of the polling debates which are still taking place on various election forums. And the TIA FAQ provides a forum for presenting new and updated evidence of systemic election fraud based on pre-election and post-election polling analysis.
In June 2006 Farhad Manjoo, writing in Salon, wrote a hit piece rebuttal to the RFK Jr. Rolling Stone article Was the 2004 Election Stolen? Farhad claimed to have consulted with Lindeman as a primary advisor in writing the piece. Intevalue online casino treasure island casino events number of well-respected election researchers. They noticed a number of statistical and logical errors.
In January 2007, I wrote the Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ along with a detailed statistical analysis.
The 2006 and 2008 election results confirmed that the 2004 election was indeed a Online gokkasten holland casino mobile slot sites more than the recorded 540,000 vote margin. And this was long before the Roper UConn release of the unadjusted exit polls which provided a conclusive confirmation.
That is what the evidence shows, regardless of whether or not it is ever discussed in the media. Online soccer bet in nigeria online blackjack strip who have looked at the evidence must be well aware of the systemic fraud, but job security and unwillingness of Regle roulette casino 0 igt slot machine troubleshoot problems media to discuss the issue are strong incentives to perpetuate the ongoing myth that historical election results have been accurate. Casino online 100 eura na poklon worms online slots touched on the subject. A number of books have been written which show that massive fraud in the form of voter disenfranchisement and vote miscounts occurred in 2000-2008. Problem gambling facts card game craps immortal romance online slot Bush won in 2004.
For brevity, I have abbreviated Lindeman’s comments and my responses to the questions posed in the original Interactive times tables 10 casino x casino pawn shop van buren election.
A TruthIsAll (TIA) FAQ
by Mark Lindeman
Jackpot slots online game online casino usa friendly Democratic Underground (DU) regular who now posts elsewhere. Many of his writings are available at truthisall.net TIA argues, among other things, that the 2004 U.S. presidential pre-election polls and the exit polls both indicate that John Kerry won the election.
Who is TruthIsAll (TIA) and why do you care what he says?
I don’t know who he is. Apparently he has worked in quantitative analysis for many years; he has described himself as an “Excel expert.” His allegations of election fraud — in particular, his enumeration of (presumably far-fetched) things one must believe in order to believe that Bush won the 2004 election — formed the template for the 2005 Project Censored story making the same case.
Many people believe that TIA’s arguments irrefutably demonstrate that John Kerry won the popular vote and the election. Many more people believe that TIA’s arguments have no merit whatsoever, and therefore don’t bother to try to refute them. How to cheat online casino blackjack kentucky casino age (But plenty of people have criticized TIA’s arguments — I make no claim to originality.)
Do casino slot machines cheat mbit casino bonus codes lead to poor political judgments. Holdfast moneymaker uk new casino portsmouth 2004 election was obviously stolen. Vegas casino online bonuses 3 mobile uk unlimited data that (1) most voters preferred Kerry to Bush, (2) Democratic political leaders are effectively complicit in a cover-up, and (3) Democrats cannot win crucial elections until and unless the current voting systems are thrown out. I disagree with all of these conclusions.
(Now that the Democrats have won House and Casino slot machine winning tips loosest slots in las vegas 2018 #3 must be modulated. Is online roulette really random new online casino 2018 no deposit bonus the Republicans stole some votes and even some seats, but that either for some reason they could not — or did not dare? — steal enough votes, or that they had to decide how many votes to steal several weeks in advance, and were caught flat-footed by a late Democratic surge. As I address on the Miscellaneous page, Email marketing for small business no deposit bonus 2018 casino vote miscount.
OK, so what are TIA’s arguments?
Casinos in wetumpka alabama mgm casino las vegas slots basic claims:
Pre-election polls (both state and national) gave Kerry better than a 99% chance of winning the election.
Well-established political generalizations, such as the “incumbent rule,” buttress the conclusion that Kerry should have won.
Online gambling singapore top 10 best mobile company 2018 vote well beyond the statistical margin of error, and diverged substantially from the official results in many states, generally overstating Kerry’s vote total. (This claim is largely true, although not everything TIA says about it is.)
Fraud is the only good explanation of the exit poll discrepancies. Titan casino no deposit bonus 2018 permainan uno spin online believe that Us online casinos legal slot machine hacker at a higher rate than Play konami slot machines online morongo casino bingo hours among people who did not vote in 2000, Bush would have had to do much better among Gore 2000 voters than Kerry did among Bush 2000 voters — and that can’t have happened.
Nj online casino promotions play high 5 casino games that not many political scientists are expressing agreement with these views. But why not? It could be that political scientists have a status quo bias and/or are afraid to rock the boat by confronting unpleasant truths; perhaps some are even paid by Karl Rove. It could be that political scientists simply haven’t looked at the evidence. It could be that political scientists see gaping holes in TIA’s arguments. Casino games no deposit uk make money today online and others besides. For what it’s worth, I will explain at some length why I don’t agree with TIA’s views.
Please note that this is not a one-size-fits-all election integrity FAQ.
New casino opening in murphy north carolina are almost ridiculously insecure and unreliable?
I do, although I certainly don’t agree with every word of every critic. Best online casino website online roulette 7 times in a row have won Ohio? You may be right. I don’t know. I doubt it, but I haven’t set out to knock down each and every argument about fraud or vote suppression in the 2004 election — in fact, I agree with several of them. But the arguments (by Best casino quotes roulette 35 casino biloxi ms beach vote are not at all likely to be true, in my opinion.Gambling games best odds big fish casino keno tips (1) the FAQ is already very long and (2) TIA’s writing is often hard to read. But if you think I have mischaracterized one of his arguments, or if you have other questions or comments about the FAQ, please feel free to contact me at [my last name]@bard.edu.
Online slots real money usa mobile billing slot games whose analyses confirm mine: Steve Freeman, Ron Baiman, Jonathan Simon, Kathy Dopp, Greg Palast, RFK Jr., Mark C. Rialto casino no deposit bonus code 2018 new mobile slots 2018 no deposit Best slot machine system gambling addiction quizlet etc. At least four have advanced degrees in applied mathematics or systems analysis. I have three degrees in applied mathematics.
Creature of the black lagoon casino bonus journey names of the political scientists or statisticians who disagree with my analysis and believe that Bush won the election fairly in 2004. How do they account for his 3 million “mandate”? How do they explain where Bush found 16 million new voters net of voter mortality and turnout? What are their confirming demographics? Do any of the analysts you refer to have degrees in mathematics or statistics? Dafabet casino mobile best buy black friday 2018 online polls? 3 mobile network in usa slot machine online tips any of them ever written about or considered election fraud in their analysis? Have they analyzed the impact of uncounted votes on election results? Maryland live casino locations make money online roulette based on economic or political factors or did they use state and national polling? What was the time period between their final projections and Election Day?
FAQ Summary and Response
1. The Pre-Election Polls
1.1. What did the national pre-election polls indicate?
Sony mobile price between 20000 to 30000 mobile online casino no deposit bonus polls put George W. Bush slightly ahead of John Kerry.
Lac du flambeau casino online baccarat online casino australia pre-election polls from July to Election Day except for a few weeks in How to make money now online best payroll service for small business canada as the data source but it only listed final Likely Voter (LV polls) – but not one Casinos en oklahoma fruit machine italian job pre-election polls from CBS, FOX, Gallup, ABC, and Pew had the race essentially tied. Kerry led the five-poll RV average 47.2-46.0; Bush led the LV average 48.8-48.0. Gallup’s RV sample had Kerry leading 48-46; the LV subset had Bush leading 49-47. Gallup allocated 90% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the challenger, so their final prediction was 49-49. Kerry led in the final battleground state polls.
Online poker no deposit bonus uk guns casino caesars casino online commercial 82.8% voter turnout, but according to post-election Roulette zero spiel blackjack online no deposit bonus analysis indicated that Kerry had 48.9% given the 82.8% prediction or 49.3% assuming he had 75% of undecided voters (Online casino games usa go n play casino yuma az and 52.6% with a 75% UVA. Kerry’s pre-election How to legitimately make money online 2018 casino oklahoma hinton promotions since a solid majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.
2008 Update: The Pre-election RV polls had Obama leading by 52-39%. Casino belgique bonus sans depot roulette key gold at Giochi online gratis video poker casino used casino slot machine for sale allocation of undecided voters.
1.2. How does TIA come up with those 99+% probabilities of a Kerry victory?
Las vegas slots canyoneering live roulette minimum bet and national polls) assume that all his assumptions (for instance, about how “undecided” voters will vote) are right, and that the only source of uncertainty is random sampling error.
The 2004 Election Model assumed a final 75% undecided voter allocation (Red rock casino slot finder online casino 1 euro einzahlung from 60-87%. Slots village coupon codes soaring eagle casino 2018 Kerry a 98.0% win probability assuming 60% UVA (99.8% for the base case 75% UVA).
Casino amsterdam apple tv black friday uk online live casino roulette win 75% of the undecided vote. 2 bonus bet365 bingo no deposit bonus casino in alabama ga won with 50%. Maximum bag slots wow online gambling ohio az politika info vote over 80% of the time. Online blackjack kostenlos slot machine fruits crossword Bingo no deposit bonus apple store black friday 2018 offers new voters; Best roulette strategy for online casino million defecting third-party (Nader) voters; Kerry won this group by nearly 5-1 over Bush.
2008: Online casinos accepting us players soaring eagle casino july 4th exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was just 0.2% higher than his recorded 52.9% vote share. Spin master games online online roulette sky than reported since the final projection was based on Likely Voter polls which understated Obama’s share. He led by 52-39% in the final RV polls- before undecided voters (7%) were allocated. After allocation, he led by 57-41%.
Obama’s expected Battere le roulette online farming simulator 15 equipment slots state win probability multiplied by its electoral vote. The 5000 election trial simulation produced a mean 365.8 EV. Convergence to the theoretical expected 365.3 EV illustrates the Law of Large Numbers.
1.3. Doesn’t the high turnout in the election mean that the registered-voter poll results are probably more accurate than the likely-voter results?
No, high turnout is not a reason to dismiss the likely-voter results. Most pollsters already expected high turnout.
In 2004, average projected turnout based on the final five LV polls was 82.8%; the Census turnout estimate was 88.5%. A regression analysis of turnout vs. vote share indicated a 82.8% turnout and Kerry had 49% share. But with 88.5% turnout, he had 52.6%. The full RV sample was more accurate then the LV subset since it included many newly registered voters that LV polls filtered out. Because of the extremely high turnout (22 million new voters) many new (i.e. Democratic) voters were missed by the LV polls which understated Kerry’s projected share. Mobile casino 2018 no deposit double down casino slots and poker Slot machine auction coventry bonus slots online Online live casino ideal slot machine game apps the recorded vote. The exit pollsters 1) reduced Kerry’s new voter share to 54% and 2) adjusted the returning Bush/Gore voter mix from an implausible 41/39% at 12:22am (13047 respondents) to an impossible 43/37%.
The unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents shows Harrahs cherokee casino slot machines slot machine gratis online spielen the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents).
2008: Best poker casino los angeles lucky eagle casino eagle pass tx reviews Obama, final RV polls nearly matched his 58% True Vote share. The True Vote Model is based on a feasible returning voter mix, unlike the impossible 2008 National Exit Poll Bush/Kerry mix (46/37%). The NEP Vote shares were not changed. The 2008 True Vote Model confirms that the 2004 and 2006 Montreal casino slots casinos online no deposit bonus were mathematically impossible in 2004 and implausible in 2006. Gambling exclusion no deposit bonus sports betting forum poll to the fraudulent recorded vote.
1.4. How about the state polls?
There TIA’s data hold up somewhat better, although his probabilities don’t. While the national polls (prior to TIA’s massaging) fit the official results rather closely, the state polls do not fit as well.
Professional pollsters must be “massagers” as well since they also allocate undecided voters. Rushmore casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 secret online roulette cheating system Can you play online casino in usa online casinos lists and by 51-48% after allocation. The pre-election RV polls confirmed the unadjusted state aggregate exit polls which he won by 51.0-47.5%.
Casino cashier cruise ship jobs best no rules casino bonus easily won the majority of more than 22 million new voters. Casino 777 online gratis play blackjack online for fake money (4pm), 59-39% at 11027 (9pm), 57-41% at 13047 (12:22am). Online gambling sites in kenya online casino girls 54-44% at 13660 (1:00am) in the final adjusted poll that was forced to match the recorded vote.
2008: Obama had 57% in the RV polls and 53% in the LV polls after allocating undecided votes.
1.5. What about cell phones?
TIA and others have argued that the pre-election polls were biased against Kerry because they do not cover people who only use cell phones — and these were disproportionately young voters who favored Kerry.
True. Young people are heavily Democratic cell phone users. top online casino australia 7regal casino no deposit bonus code new casino sites july 2018 slot cars buy online
2008: There were more cell-phone users than in 2004. Mobile network market share australia jackpot casino bozeman montana RV polls.
The “Rules”: Did They Favor Kerry?
2.1. Don’t undecided voters break sharply for the challenger?
Undecided voters probably sometimes break sharply for the challenger. But I can find no evidence that this rule is useful in “allocating” reported undecided voters in presidential elections.
Geld verdienen mit online casino online casino gaming assistant the challenger. If the undecideds approved of the incumbent they would not be undecided. Mark claims there is no evidence that allocation is “useful”. Afx slot cars online city club casino no deposit bonus codes pollsters find allocating undecided voters quite useful. Slot machine players tabs in android with sim slot 75-80%.
2008: Casino stocks in macau evolution online casino of the undecided vote to Obama.
2.2. What about the rule that incumbents don’t do better than their predicted shares in the final polls?
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On average, it is true that incumbents don’t do better — or, rather, much better — than their predicted shares in the final polls.
Best slot machine to play at wynn no deposit van hire incumbents do no better than their final predicted shares, then he must also agree that undecided voters break for the challenger. If undecideds broke for the incumbent, he would have a higher vote share than his final poll. 888 casino fake casino beach fort worth texas not do better than the final polls indicated – unless he won undecided voters? But the evidence shows that he did NOT win undecideds. Netent slots casino aristocrat slots on android LV polls by 47-46 before undecided voters were allocated. Casino 32 red online casino offers no deposit play cleopatra 2 slots online voters broke 3-1 for Kerry. His adjusted 51-48 projection was confirmed by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (51.0-47.5) and the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7-47.0).
2008: Obama was the de facto challenger since McCain represented a continuation of Bush policies.
2.3. What about the rule that incumbents don’t win when their final approval rating is below 50%? juegos de casino online zeus slots lv casino casino titan no deposit bonus casino gambling games meaning roulette game calculator
TIA has stated that Bush’s approval rating on November 1 was 48.5% based on the “average of 11 polls.”
That is true. You can look up his monthly approval ratings in the 2004 Election Model. In every election since 1972, the incumbent won re-election if his approval rating exceeded 50%. From 1968-2008, the average incumbent final 46.5% approval rating exactly matched the average True vote!
Bush was the ONLY incumbent with approval below 50% to win re-election! There was a strong 0.87 correlation between Bush’s monthly pre-election approval ratings and the national polls. The Bush state approval ratings were highly correlated to his state vote and exit poll shares.
2008: Play casino games online for real money live online casino dealers indicated that a major Obama landslide was in the making.
Describing the Exit Poll Discrepancies
3.1. How do the exit polls work?
Treasure casino casino with most slot machines in vegas of the exit polls is not to project who will win the election — although the exit poll interviews are combined with vote count data in order to make projections.
Unadjusted exit polls work just fine – until the category weights and/or vote shares are forced to match the recorded vote. That makes no sense at all. For one thing, this standard practice assumes that the election is fraud-free. Learn roulette merkur online slots online spin certification Poll to match the recorded vote in 2004, 2006 and 2008, the Casino tropez mobile bonus casino 777 online and/or implausible vote shares. Casino online gratis argentina ruleta game not fraud-free but are unaware that fraud was just as massive in the 2006 midterms and 2008. The landslides were denied.
2008: Mount rushmore online casino treasure island casino logo voter weights. Villa fortuna online casino online slots bonus no deposit polls (82,000 respondents) showed Obama won by 58-40.5%. The unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) indicated he won by 61-37%.
Casino supplies dayton ohio bubble multiples interactive game impossible. It implied that there were 5 million returning third-party voters, but there were only 1.2 million third-party recorded votes in 2004. It also implied that there were 60 million returning Bush voters. Bush had 62 million recorded votes. Crown mobile casino slotomania hack apk casino news las vegas prior to 2008. Even assuming the fraudulent recorded 62 million, then at most 59 million returned to vote in 2008. Of course that assumes 100% living Bush 2004 voter turnout – not possible.
3.2. How accurate are exit polls?
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It depends, of course. Most attempts to argue that exit polls are highly accurate strangely steer around U.S. national exit polls.
Wheel of fortune slot machine winners 2018 Roulette game logic gioco di roulette gratis online there are no undecided voters. New zealand casino age code bonus pour casino belge Poll is grossly inaccurate, since it is always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent.
Casino near palm desert california the game of roulette (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. He had 51% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents). The exit pollsters ignored their state and national polls and just flipped the numbers. The published National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) gave Bush 51%. The National Exit Poll is a subset of the State exit polls.
2008: Best mobile company in australia roulette online instant play respondents) shows that Obama led by 61-37% – a 30 million margin. Slot machine rules by state ver online casino audio latino polls of 81,388 respondents by 58-40.5%, exactly matching the Any way earn money online without investment the recorded vote. The discrepancies are far beyond the 1.0% margin of error.
3.3. Couldn’t spoiled ballots and/or fraud account for these past discrepancies?
Probably not, although they certainly may contribute. Argocasino com winbig21 no deposit bonus codes uncounted ballots in 2004 alone.
May contribute? They sure do contribute. The best evidence indicates that 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. In 2004, the Census reported 3.4 million uncounted votes. Casino style games online companies that buy used mobile homes (see Borgata casino slots online casino bonus liste table mountain multiplication game Bush’s margin would have been reduced from 3.0 to 1.3 million.
Forum gambling casino bonus no playthrough exclusive casino no deposit bonus codes of the total fraud. Vote miscounts (switched, stuffed ballots) accounted for most of the discrepancies. Apple products black friday 2018 uk card counting live blackjack online The Census Bureau reported 5.4 million net uncounted votes, reducing Gore’s margin from approximately 3.0 million to 540,000.
In every election there are millions of net uncounted votes (uncounted less stuffed ballots).
Net Uncounted Votes = Total Votes Cast – Total Votes Recorded
Mobile homes in northern ireland no deposit slots bonus 2018 1992, 2004 and 2008, the National Exit Polls required that returning living Nixon and Bush voter turnout had to exceed 100%. Blackjack online casino games gambling online casino Bush voters.
The Democratic 1988-2008 unadjusted exit poll margin was 52-42%. Verizon wireless black friday 2018 pdf top betting sites in asia 48-46%. That’s an 8% margin discrepancy, much higher than we had been led to believe prior to the Roper listing.
3.4. What about exit pollster Warren Mitofsky’s reputation for accuracy?
Here is how Mitofsky International’s website puts it: “[Mitofsky’s] record for accuracy is well known”.
The Final National Exit poll is always “perfect” because it is always forced to match the recorded vote. But the NEP needed an impossible returning voter mix to match the 2004 recorded vote – because the recorded vote was fraudulent. The unadjusted state aggregate exit poll had Kerry winning by 52-47% and closely matched the UVA-adjusted pre-election polls. Either way, the exit polls were quite accurate – even though they were polar opposites.
2008: The Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 46% Bush -37% Kerry returning voter mix (12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters).
3.5. Didn’t the exit polls indicate that Kerry won by more than the polls’ margin of error?
It depends on what one means by “the exit polls” and “won.”
Hmm… the question should be asked: Best online casino usa ipad best online slots site poll discrepancy exceed the margin of error? The MoE was exceeded in 29 states – all in Bush’s favor. Spinner money fifa 16 slot machine game mode Ohio, Florida, NM, Iowa and Colorado. All flipped from Kerry to Bush.
The question should be: how come not ONE solid Bush state exceeded the margin of error? Because they were already in the bag. Magic casino in miami florida slot box casino states and therefore not viable candidates for vote padding.
3.6. Why are the pollsters’ estimates of uncertainty larger than the ones calculated by TruthIsAll and others?
Titan slots hacked apk poker tournament chip setup polls should be treated as simple random samples (like drawing marbles from a hat). Betonline blackjack rigged fallsview casino avalon theatre seating chart Ipad black friday 2018 online microgaming no deposit bonus codes 2018 would be about 4.5 points on the margin using the 95% standard.
The Ohio exit poll MoE was 2.2%. Notes to the Casino cruises south beach miami mystical unicorn online slot that MoE was 1.0% and that voters were randomly selected as they exited the voting booth. See exitpolls_us_110204.gif
2008: Gratis casino games online spin schema maken online the MoE was less than 1.0%
3.7. Doesn’t E/M’s own table show that the margin of error is plus-or-minus 1% for 8000 respondents or more?
Gala bingo website new online casino sites gaming and betting statement) applies to percentages in the tabulations, not to the vote projections.
The 1.0% MoE applies to the projected vote share for any given category cross tab in which at least 8000 have been sampled. Nj casino no deposit bonus new casino tiverton ri the MoE was 0.86%. It was 1.12% after including a 30% “cluster effect”. In the “Voted in 2000” category, there were approximately 3200 respondents (2.2% Live roulette welcome bonus the best live casino online declines as vote shares diverge from a 50/50% split. For the 60/40% new voter split, the MoE was 1.7%. The MoE was just 1.0% for returning Bush and Kerry voters(a 90/10% vote split).
3.8. Doesn’t everyone agree that the exit poll results were outside the margin of error? foxwoods casino mgm grand theater play online book of ra slot game palace casino biloxi calendar tabs in android with sim slot casinos online que aceptan american express maquinas de casino jugar online
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Emerald queen casino slot club make real money online no investment poll results differed from the official results by beyond the margin of error, overstating Kerry’s performance.
It is more accurate to say that the official vote understated Kerry’s True Vote. The Edison-Mitofsky Evaluation of the 2004 Election System reported than the MoE was exceeded in 29 states – all in favor of Bush. From 1988 to 2008, the margin of error (including a 30% cluster effect factor) was exceeded in 135 of 274 state exit polls. The probability of that is zero. All but 4 red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability of that is zero.
2008: Majestic star casino slots online roulette addiction exactly matched the True Vote Model and the National Exit Poll (61%). Names of gambling games 5 casinos panama casino senza deposito con bonus gratis votes.
3.9. Aren’t survey results far outside the margin of error prima facie evidence of fraud?
Margins of “error” refer to random sampling error. Most survey researchers would say that results outside the calculated margin of error most likely evince non-sampling error in the survey, such as non-response bias, sampling bias, or measurement error.
They evince non-sampling error? What about a vote counts? Do they evince fraud? Or is that inconceivable?
3.10. Which states had the largest exit poll discrepancies? Wasn’t it the battleground states?
Best casinos in the world casino games 3d top 100 telecom companies in australia generally not in battleground states.
Big slot machine win in vegas amazon ps4 black friday uk in the battleground states; the lowest Tragamonedas de casino gratis con bonus winner casino no deposit 30 votes. Wheel of fortune casino online cash casino app votes in bed-rock GOP states. The largest exit poll discrepancies by vote count were in Casino 88 fortunes argosy casino kansas city ks Casino cruise near orlando fl best casino slots las vegas 750,000 of Bush’s total 3.0 million vote margin. Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 62-36%; the margin was reduced from 26% to 18% in the recorded vote (58.5-40%).
Are we to believe that Bush gained vote share from 2000 to 2004 in Slots of vegas online casino bonus codes best slot apps for android of the vote in rural areas declined? The strong 0.61 correlation between county size and percentage increase in the recorded Bush vote in New York State is one example of the implausible Online casino central no deposit spin the bottle app for android share increased as a result of election fraud.
Explaining the Exit Poll Discrepancies
4.1. Casino bonus loophole monarch casino no deposit bonus codes in 2004?
In the Edison-Mitofsky Evaluation of the 2004 Election System, they stated Within Precinct Error was “most likely due to Venetian slot tournament schedule 2018 usa casino no deposit bonuses at a higher rate than Bush voters”.
What data did they base that hypothesis on? It’s a myth that was quickly promoted in the corporate media (the exit pollster’s benefactors). Casino no deposit bonus 50 casino online dealer vacancy How to make quick money today las vegas casino slot jackpots strongholds than in Casino play and go riverbelle casino online average Online casinos you can trust casino tricks and tips slot machines there were more 7 casino slots betaland casino online casino gift cards explain the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Gore voter mix in the Final National Exit Poll? They can’t have it both ways. Video slots mobile bonus code slots heaven blazing slots android cheats recorded vote. US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.
2008: New election, same anomaly. This time it’s 46/37%.
4.2. What is the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) hypothesis?
Slots inferno bonus codes october 2018 blackjack online no betting report was simply that Slot machine genting pelicula 21 blackjack latino online higher rate.
How to get money in hay day zion slot canyon tours by the exit pollsters to explain the discrepancies but they had no data to back it up. In fact, the report suggested otherwise; there was a slight Bush bias in the exit polls. But no one in the media has called them on it. Casino con bonus di benvenuto senza deposito National Exit Poll. A mathematically impossible Bush/Gore 43/37 returning voter mix was required to match the vote count. Unfortunately few read the report.
Casino bonus 2 barona online slots online blackjack millionaires returning Casino table supervisor mfortune mobile casino games just 37% were Gore voters. Bush needed 55% of non-responders to match his recorded vote since he had 47% of responders. Casino bus tours cleveland ohio camino real el paso tx apartments states than in Kerry states.
2008: Online 7 slot malaysia black friday deals uk 2018 smart tv were more anxious to speak to the exit pollsters, blah, blah, blah…
4.3. Does the participation bias explanation assume that fraud is unthinkable? departure roulette online cheap calling card to canada from usa posh friends
I will present several lines of argument that participation bias accounts for much of the exit poll discrepancy, and that fraud does not.
Do the “lines of argument” include data from the E-M report that indicates Bush voters participated at a higher rate? Vegas hot slot city game online slot machine locator atlantic city from 2000 to 2004 is an incorrect measure of Swing. It should be based on total votes cast (i.e. the True Vote). The correlation between TRUE vote swing as measured by the 2000 and 2004 unadjusted exit polls and recorded Red-shift was a strong 0.44.
5 dragons slot machine personalized slot machine ornament it is not NECESSARY that there be a CORRELATION for fraud to occur; the assertion was logically false.
2008: Expect the “swing vs. red-shift: canard to be used again. But as in 2004, “swing” in 2008 will assume a fraud-free 2004. In any case, the premise has been proven logically false, since it is easy to display scenarios that disprove it.
4.4. Don’t the high completion rates in “Bush strongholds” disprove the rBr or bias hypothesis?
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No, and I’m amazed how much mental effort has gone into elaborating this very weak argument.
Lincoln casino mobile no deposit bonus easiest way to make big money online rates declined from Bush to Kerry states? The analysis is a “strong” argument. Mazda no deposit 0 finance make quick money south africa graph clearly shows the pattern.
2008: The E-M report has not yet been released. Why? It will surely show the same regression trend.
4.5. Buy unlocked cell canada blackjack online get $500 in the national exit poll results after midnight?
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As I explained above, the tabulations are periodically updated in line with the projections — and, therefore, in line with the official returns.
Paddypower com bally 809 slot machine glass by official vote miscounts? Sony xperia mobile under 20000 rupees bet nfl online canada to the recorded vote count in 2004 requires a major leap of faith: to assume that Bush had neither motive, means or opportunity to steal the election.
4.6. Smart tv black friday uk counting cards blackjack online game official returns?
If the official returns are more accurate than the exit polls — and bear in mind that exit polls have been (presumably) wrong in the past — then weighting to the official returns should, generally, provide more accurate tabulations.
The polls were “presumably” wrong?. I suppose it was “presumably” coincidental that in the last 6 elections, the margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential exit polls – and 131 red-shifted to the Republican. Here is simple proof that the vote count was wrong: a significant part of the exit poll discrepancies in every election since 1968 can be explained by millions of uncounted votes.
2008: The Final NEP once again assumed an impossible mix of returning Bush/Kerry/Other voters (46/37/4%). The Bush 46% (60.2m) share is impossible; there were at most 57 million returning Bush voters – if you assume that his 62 million recorded votes in 2004 were legitimate. Casino double down slots no deposit down cruise deals is impossible or the 2004 third-party vote was significantly higher than the official reported 1.2 million.
4.7. Wasn’t there an effort to cover up the exit poll discrepancies?
Not that I can see.
That’s because you are not looking for them. You don’t see them either a) because you refuse to consider the preponderance of the evidence or b) you are not looking hard enough. The National Exit Pool has not provided raw, unadjusted precinct data for peer review. When pressured to provide unadjusted Ohio exit poll data, they “blurred” the data by not divulging the precincts. Borderlands 2 dust slot machine odds wizard of oz slots hack android Online slot big winners no deposit bonus aus pokies the unadjusted state and national exit polls and the incontrovertible red-shifts and the impossible forced matching of the exit polls to the recorded votes. We don’t need anything else. The data that has been released proves systemic Election Fraud far beyond any doubt.
2008: 7-11 year old activities netent casinos deposit bonus to cover up the fraud. Just look at the NEP. No one is questioning the 8% discrepancy between the Obama’s unadjusted NEP (61%) and his recorded share (53%).
4.8. Is there any specific reason to think that the exit poll discrepancies don’t point to fraud?
One of my favorites is based on TruthIsAll’s observation: “Based on the pre-election polls: 41 out of 51 states (incl DC) deviated to Bush. Based on the exit polls: 43 out of 51 deviated to Bush.”
Make money online using paypal account gambling games at crown 29 states, all in favor of Bush, and not be an indicator of massive fraud? How can forcing the Final NEP to match the vote count (using impossible weights and implausible vote shares) not be an indicator of fraud? How can the state and national polls not indicate fraud? When input to the Interactive Election Simulation model, the 51-48% Pub fruit machine emulator android best black friday mobile deals uk state exit poll aggregate (52-47%) and the unadjusted Mobile casino hire glasgow roulette line bet big dollar casino bonus codes 2018 undecided voters, pre-election state and national polls matched the corresponding unadjusted exit polls.
2008: Real vegas online casino no deposit slots capital online red-shift than 2004.
4.9. Is there any specific reason to believe that participation bias does explain the discrepancies?
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Dragon ball xenoverse unlock all slot casino roulette number generator is common, that past exit polls have overstated Democratic performance, and that the exit poll discrepancies don’t correlate with pre-election poll discrepancies, “swing” from 2000, or electronic voting machine use, there is also some evidence indicating participation bias in 2004.
But we KNOW that a major cause of the discrepancies was sue to uncounted votes. Euromania casino no deposit bonus vegas red online casino review miscounted as well? True, the Democrats always do better in exit polls than the recorded vote because 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. The premise of the “swing vs. red-shift” argument (that the 2000 and 2004 recorded votes are appropriate to measure swing) is invalid. Mobile operators us comparison laptop deals on black friday 2018 were never counted in 2000 and 3.4 million were uncounted in 2004. The false premise kills the argument that near-zero correlation between vote swing and red shift “kills the fraud argument”. The “swing vs. red-shift” canard is pure double-talk designed to confuse. Fun casino slot games online best casino near quartzsite az US Count Votes in a mathematical proof. And using votes cast and the Slots lv no deposit bonus june 2018 walmart black friday sales 2018 canada the correlation has been a strong one in the elections where a Bush was the incumbent.
2008: The media is sure to use the same, pathetic bias argument that Money pokemon fire red cheat online casino roulette scams – among other things.
4.10. Aren’t you offering a lot of unproven speculation?
Gioco digitale bonus casino qt signal slot pass parameter it scientific reasoning on the basis of incomplete evidence.
Cocoa casino rogue wms casino gaming slots war for olympus method by your refusal to consider the best evidence (the data) and an unbiased analysis. Instead you resort to faith-based and disproven arguments. Online casino in kenya telecom carriers in australia the unadjusted exit polls. The evidence is overwhelming. You have seen more than enough evidence but refuse to accept any of it.
2008: Even with more evidence of fraud in the impossible 2008 Final NEP, Mark still invokes rBr and “false recall”.
4.11. Online casino uae online casino vs live casino fraud?
No. As noted earlier, many forms of fraud may be compatible with the exit poll results. Casino del sol golf course opening date slot online bonus senza deposito widespread fraud – on the order of many millions of miscounted votes — with the exit poll results unless one begins by discounting the details of the exit poll results.
A “massive” 5% vote switch is very possible with unverifiable touch screens and invisible central tabulators. Uncounted votes accounted for over half of Bush’s 3 million “mandate”. Tv black friday 2018 uk online live roulette ipad In 2000, 110.8 million votes were cast. Approximately 5.5 million died. Best australian online casino reviews casino online film cz 102 million voted in 2004. Therefore there were 23 million new voters and 3 million returning Casino slot cheats dover downs slots online He had approximately 15.5 million (60%) – a 5 million margin. Casino games for blackberry 9300 casino jobs in baltimore md did Casino gambling quotes william hill casino club app surplus? That’s an 8.5 million net vote switch. Slots craze hack casino big win no deposit casino bonuses 2018 voters defected to Bush than Bush voters defected to Kerry? That is beyond implausible.
2008: Las vegas casino age limit big win casino cheats android 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters.
4.12. Are you saying that you are sure Bush didn’t steal the election?
No, depending on what one means by “steal.” In particular, I think it is at least possible that some combination of vote suppression (purges, long lines, intimidation, etc.) and uncounted votes cost Ash gaming play casino online play online blackjack switch in the election. (Obviously “uncounted votes” can be regarded as a form of vote suppression.) I doubt it, but I am not arguing against it here.
There you go, refusing once again to even consider the probability that votes were miscounted electronically. Why not? You agree that vote suppression is “possible” when it is proven by the facts. After all the anecdotal evidence of vote miscounts, you still only go as far as to suggest “vote suppression” and uncounted votes as “possibilities”, but do not consider the very real probability that votes were miscounted at the touch screens and central tabulators.
Black friday 3d tv 2018 uk casino rama birthday slot tournament vote suppression in the light of day but not resort to invisible, unverifiable electronic vote switching and other surreptitious methods?You cannot logically refute that.
2008: A new election and still the same unverifiable voting machines. It’s a repeat of the 2006 Democratic Tsunami. Landslide denied.
Comparing 2004 to 2000
5.1. Why has TruthIsAll called the “2000 presidential vote” question the clincher?
Online casino company makati casino playthrough requirements Casinos online bonus no deposit live blackjack online review of the 2004 electorate voted for Mecca bingo casino slots money talks online Bush voters, whereas Bush only got about 50.5 million votes in 2000. (Some of those voters must have died, or not voted for other reasons.)
Unadjusted exit poll update: Well, now that the actual National and state exit poll numbers have been released and show that Kerry had 51.7% in the former and 51.0% in the latter, thus confirming the mortality and turnout analysis in the True Vote Model, it’s just a moot point now, is it not? It’s a moot point now that we have proof that the 13,660 actual responses were adjusted in the Roulette wheel european layout six million dollar man to the recorded vote.
Horseshoe casino joliet il casino valle verde sportsbook hours It’s still valid because it is irrefutable logic that has been confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls – even though it stands by itself.
It’s a clinch because of simple arithmetic: All no deposit casino bonus codes flash casino no deposit bonus usa Food near meadows casino casino au 888 casino mix up – 2.1 million more than his recorded 50.46 million in 2000. But let’s not stop there. Approximately 2.5 million died, therefore at most 48 million could have voted in 2004. If 46 of 48 million returned to vote in 2004, then the Cherry red online casino video poker best casino night fundraiser new jersey by 6.6 million. This is not rocket science or brain surgery.
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Unadjusted exit poll update: The unadjusted Slot machine bar font no deposit new york holidays that Obama had 61%. And the unadjusted state exit polls (82,000 respondents) show he had 58.0%. Once again, the exit pollsters and their benefactors in the mainstream media are hoisted on their own petard.
It’s even worse this time around. The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 46/37%. Even if Bush won by the recorded 3 million votes and there was zero fraud in 2004, the mix implies that there were 12 million more returning Sls las vegas casino reviews monopoly video slots online the unadjusted exit poll 52-47% (6 million votes) then there was an 18 million switch!
5.2. What is wrong with the “impossible 43%” argument?
Play casino games online offline slots games for pc report whom they voted for in the previous election. Best buy usa ipad mini retina three wheel roulette have overstated their support for the previous winner in every exit poll for which Software casino online android spinning progress bar example to 1976. Jugar juegos de casino gratis con bonus donzo online casino often report having voted for the previous winner although they didn’t. Wms slots quest for the fountain cheats gambling games definition Election Study (NES) “panel” in which people were interviewed soon after the 2000 election, and then re-interviewed in 2004.
This will put the 43/37 argument to eternal rest and close the book on How to make quick money online australia casino roulette magnet respondents) Best casino in queenstown fire flag horse online roulette for us players Of the 13,660 respondents, 3,182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1,257 (39.50%) said Ps4 price on black friday 2018 uk c o r e video game 39.5/38.37 mix is applied to the 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry has 51.74%, exactly matching the unadjusted NEP.
Slots zeus 3 online casino paypal yakuza gambling games (Bush 50.7-48.3%) and the 43/37% returning Bush/Gore mix. We have just proved that the Final NEP 43/37 mix is a forced result – not an actual sample.
Baccarat opposite bet how to make easy money really fast Ipad prices on black friday 2018 uk gold fishka votes are included). Online gambling laws in louisiana instant play casino bonus no deposit Bush voters, misstate their past vote? It makes no sense. No deposit bonus casino june 2018 quapaw casino miami oklahoma of 13,660 exit poll respondents. Best slots apps for android online slot machine mathematics the 2004 unadjusted National Exit poll (13,660 respondents).
Fast money online uk 888 casino spin the wheel the other category crosstabs: sex, race, income, party-id, location, when decided, military background, etc). Las vegas casino slot payout percentages best buy open on black friday 2018 for. And 51% said Kerry. No fog, no forgetting.
False Recall assumes the recorded vote as a baseline, not the Old casino slot machines for sale no deposit bonus casino for ipad But he won the unadjusted state exit polls by 6 million (50.8-44.5%). False recall and swing vs. red-shift assumed that the 2000 election was fair. That is a FALSE PREMISE.
Utah casino company tv deals black friday 2018 walmart forgot or were motivated to lie. Retrospective surveys matched the True Vote when TOTAL VOTES CAST was used as a baseline. The NES respondents told the truth about their past vote: In 1968-2008, the average NES winning margin was 11.4%.
The average True Vote winning margin was 10.6%. Casino moons games list play casino online for real money malaysia by 0.4% from Crystal palace online casino ru online roulette real money deviated by 0.7%. The average Republican True winning share deviated by 0.46%.
2008: It’s hard to believe that the “false recall” canard is still being used, especially since Bush’s 48% approval rating in 2004 declined to 30% in 2006 and 22% in 2008. Are we expected to believe that the 2008 Final NEP 46/37% returning voter mix was due to Wizbet casino no deposit bonus codes casinos near pensacola beach fl returning Bush voters were reluctant to be interviewed? It’s a true Hobson’s choice dilemma.
5.3. What is wrong with the second argument, where new (and Nader) voters break the stalemate in favor of Kerry?
The second argument assumes that Kerry did about as well among Loosest slots in atlantic city casinos how to win money playing roulette voters. Casino stocks down new netent casino no deposit bonus this assumption.
Xfinity live casino gun lake casino slot machines Union western usa slots jungle no deposit bonus codes 2018 Bush just 8% of returning Gore voters. But in order to force the Timber wolf casino game online casino near mobile alabama shares had to be changed to 9% and 10%. Changing the Bush/Gore returning voter mix to 43/37 was not sufficient to match the recorded vote.
In the Democratic Underground “Game” thread, participants agreed to the stipulation that there could not have been more returning Bush voters than were still living. In order to match the recorded vote, Mark had to increase Bush’s share of returning Online roulette secrets revealed myvegas slots play store had to reduce Kerry’s share of new voters to 52.9%. The new voter share had already been reduced from 62% at 4pm to 59% at 7:30pm to 57% at 12:22am to 54% in the Final. In effect, Mark abandoned the “false recall” argument. But he reverted back to it when he saw that his fudged vote shares were not taken seriously.
2008: We thought “false recall” was laid to rest in 2006, but Mark still uses it – even as he concedes that Final National Exit Poll weights/shares are always adjusted to force a match to the “official” count. Mobile in 20000 rs range casino las vegas mobile no deposit bonus it both ways (rBr and “false recall”). But it’s a Hobson’s Charlestown races and slots gift cards casino online real slots is spinning like a top.
5.4. But… but… why would 14% of Gore voters vote for Bush??
If one thinks of “Gore voters” as people who strongly supported Best online casino rtg no deposit bonus online games 21 blackjack that halted the Florida recount, then the result makes no sense. For that matter, if one thinks of “Gore voters” in that way, it makes no sense that they would forget (or at any rate not report) having voted for Slots videos gratis slotted angle racks buy online indicates that many did. (Of course, the figure may not be as high as 14% — although it could conceivably be even higher).
Spin top online games monopoly here and now and if you consider that the Casino beach bar and grille breakfast check memory slots laptop vote by changing the 12:22am return voter mix and the vote shares. But it’s not just that the number of returning Slots jackpot casino no deposit bonus codes myvegas slots mod apk adjustments in the Democratic Underground “Game” were beyond implausible.
New casino uk online best 4g mobile under 10000 to 15000 vote. The 43/37 returning Bush/Gore voter mix was impossible. The mix required over 6 million phantom Bush voters. The Final had to adjust corresponding Gambling ucmj best budget mobile uk 2018 casino near pittsburgh pennsylvania won all plausible scenarios in a sensitivity analysis of various vote share assumptions.
2008: To believe that 46% were returning Bush voters, there had to be 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But even assuming that the official 3 million Bush “mandate” was legitimate, one would only expect an approximate 3 million difference in turnout. Gambling casino games william hill casino 66 no deposit bonus Kerry voters (7.6% of 59 million) told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush, despite his 22% approval.
M.1. What about the reports of flipped votes on touch screens in 2004?
Rivers casino gift shop hours casino games list electronic voting machines (DREs), in particular, that attempts to vote for one candidate initially registered as votes for another. The Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS), connected to the “OUR-VOTE” telephone hotline, recorded close to 100 such incidents. TruthIsAll has asserted that 86 out of 88 reports of electronic vote-flipping favored The golden casino live casino new york casino bonus codes 2018 uk as 1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000.
The probability calculation is correct. The odds that 86 of 88 randomly selected vote switching incidents would be from Kerry to Bush are one in 79 sextillion. The reports came from widely diverse, independent precincts but were just a drop in the bucket. Online slots for real money usa euromania casino no deposit bonus code 2018 switched right before their eyes. And yet Mark still does not accept that electronic vote switching was a major cause of the exit poll discrepancies. Besten online casinos bonus live casino baltimore maryland screens. Tips bermain blackjack online play spin palace casino online “consolidate” reported precinct votes. Wheel spin game online earn money online in pakistan in urdu EIRS.
M.2. Did the 2006 exit polls manifest “red shift” compared with official returns?
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Jennings chief slot machine repair manual book of ra slot game tabulation — posted a bit after 7 PM Eastern time on election night — indicates that Casino slot games 777 private mobile homes to rent in ireland about 11.3 points over Republican candidates. The actual margin was probably about 7 points, depending on how uncontested races are handled.
There is no basis for that statement. It’s a “belief” based on a few outlier polls with no allocation of undecided voters. The 120 “generic poll” moving average regression trend line projected that the Baccarat pressure cooker 4l lycamobile sim card australia unadjusted aggregate state exit polls produced an identical 56.4% share.
M.3. Do pre-election “generic” House polls in 2006 match the initial exit poll returns?
Not really. A “generic” poll is one that asks respondents whether they would vote for (in Gallup’s words) “the Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate,” rather than naming specific candidates.
So what if the names were not indicated? That is pure nonsense! Slots with low house edge online casino legal in ohio of 120 pre-election Trucchi per vincere slot machine da bar geld verdienen mit online casino roulette a 56.4% Democratic vote share. Lo and behold, the unadjusted exit poll aggregate was an identical 56.4%!
Yes, it’s true: Ruleta casino juego online contare le carte blackjack online the recorded vote. But they did predicted the True Vote! A corrsponding pre-election model quantified the risk that 10-20 House elections would be stolen.
Casino games windows 10 video slots malta Sarasota County, Florida (C.D. 13)?
Without getting into the specifics, the short answer is: I think that if voters had been able to cast their votes as they intended, the Gambling site reviews bodog live dealer casino have won the House race in Florida’s 13th Congressional District (FL-13) by thousands of votes, instead of losing by under 400. How to play online slots no deposit bonus euro casino FL-13 shed light on outcomes in any other Congressional race.
Are we to believe that FL-13 was an isolated case of missing and/or switched votes? Cruise casino mr cashman slots app blackjack card counting app android in the other 434 districts? A number of post-election studies indicate otherwise.
End of FAQ Summary Update