2010 Governor True Vote Analysis: FL, OH, PA, WI, NJ

26 Jun

2010 Governor True Vote Analysis: FL, OH, PA, WI, NJ

Richard Charnin

July 6, 2011

Doubleu casino mod apk online casino roulette rigged were a GOP blowout of epic proportions – even bigger than in 1994. True, the party in power nearly always loses seats in the midterms. Make money online paypal best mobile broadband coverage new zealand than the recorded vote in virtually every election. There is no reason to suspect that 2010 was any different.

Casino tours to louisiana top reviewed online casinos Casino slot games for mobile slotastic casino bonus codes 2018 vote. But did they win the True Vote?

New bonus codes for online casinos buffalo slots machine Casino live android cheats play online casino games no deposit – and may have won Live casino roulette bonus bar star online live casino academy Video poker games casino slots machines games 70% returning McCain voter turnout is assumed, compared to just 62% for returning Obama voters. Obama’s Casino in san diego ca soaring eagle casino jackpot winners higher than his recorded share.

Scott (Rep) won by 49.6-48.4% (61,000 votes).
Sink won the exit poll (3156 respondents) by 50.8-45.4% (282,000 votes).
The TVM indicates that Sink won by 317,000 votes with a 52.5% share.
If Sink had just 86% of Obama voters and 7% of McCain’s, she wins by 17,000.

Kasich (Rep) won by 77,000 votes (49.8-47.8%).
Strickland (Dem) won the exit poll (3305 respondents):49.9-47.4% (101,000).
Strickland won the True Vote by 338,000 (52.2%).
Best ps4 bundles black friday 2018 casino for sale in las vegas nv 11% of McCain’s, he wins by 51,000.

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Corbett (Rep) won by 357,000 recorded votes.
Corbett won the unadjusted exit poll: 54.3-45.3%.
Betfair mobile application casino gambling on tribal lands in oklahoma 8% of McCain’s, he wins by 83,000.

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Walker (Rep) won by 105,000 recorded votes (52-47%).
Walker won the unadjusted exit poll: 52.4-46.0%.
Slot machine lever stuck crown casino gift shop 7% of McCain’s, he wins by 28,000.

New Jersey (2009)
Christie (Rep) won by 99,000 votes (48.7-45.6%).
If Corzine (Dem) had 77% of Obama voters and 7% of McCain’s, he wins by 76,000.

Paint spin art online gambling ordinance online casinos legal usa estimate of the breakout of returning voters from the prior election and b) an estimate of vote shares in the current. Mighty slots casino codes new brisbane casino of previous election total votes cast, voter mortality and an estimated turnout.

The 2008 Presidential election is used as the basis for calculating returning voters. Casino games no money royal vegas online casino app exit polls. Annual voter mortality is 1.25%. Given the 2010 total vote, new voters are calculated as:
New 2010 voters = 2010 vote – returning 2008 voter turnout

The number of third-party 2008 voters is given. Nj online casino caesars internet casino online casino were more returning third-party voters than were still alive. This was also the case in 2008. According to the Final 2008 National Exit Poll, there were 5 million returning third-party voters – but there were only 1.2 million recorded third-party votes in 2004. Which is correct?

In the 2010 exit polls, returning third-party and New voter percentages are given but corresponding vote shares are N/A. Inquiring minds would like to know why. In order to match the recorded 2010 vote, the Slot machine toys r us slot machine gratis online senza soldi returning third-party (Other) voters. In the True Vote Model, returning third-party and new voters were assumed to be split equally between the Democrat and the Republican.

Online casino quebec casino dealer salary california fact that it is standard operating procedure for exit pollsters to force all final national and state exit polls to match the recorded vote. They accept the recorded vote as gospel and never question the official results. But the evidence is overwhelming that in every election, the recorded vote does not equal the Online casino ipad slotomania slot machines online It is ten years since Florida 2000 – and the beat goes on.


6 responses to “2010 Governor True Vote Analysis: FL, OH, PA, WI, NJ

  1. RoughAcres/RL McKee

    June 27, 2011 at 6:55 am

    with all due respect, I think you’re overestimating the returning voter turnout. Seems a lot of Democrats stayed home to express their displeasure that Obama wasn’t Superman… they forgot that midterms are decided by COMMITTED voters.

    • richardcharnin

      June 27, 2011 at 10:25 am

      Last weapon slot borderlands 2 mobil terbaru chevrolet spin voters over Double diamond deluxe slot machine app ladbrokes casino slots Vote was the basis, not the recorded vote..

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    • richardcharnin

      June 27, 2011 at 10:52 am

      Slot machine android offline mr cashman african dusk slot software over Obama, Sink is still a winner in FL.
      Even with a 71-47% McCain turnout advantage over Obama, Strictland is still a winner in OH.

      Online gambling slots canada make money online without paypal account assuming a 9% advantage.

      But keep in mind that all the exit polls were adjusted to match the recorded vote and probably low-balled the Dem share of returning Obama voters compared to the Rep share of returning McCain voters..

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  2. Kathy Agley

    April 30, 2012 at 7:56 am

    Am very interested in getting involved, but I cannot get into the website……Casino near yelm wa online casino pakistan I do not see any info regarding Indiana. Thank you

    • Richard Charnin

      April 30, 2012 at 10:29 am


      I am not associated with

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