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Illinois 2010 Senate True Vote Analysis

19 Jun

Illinois 2010 Senate True Vote Analysis

Richard Charnin

June 18, 2011

This is an analysis of the 2010 Illinois senate race in which Kirk (Rep) defeated Giannoulias (Dem) by 60,000 recorded votes (49.2-47.6%).

Giannoulias won the unadjusted exit poll by 51-47%, a 144,000 vote margin.
Roulette wheel rims casinos online real money no deposit by 49.7-47.1%, a 97,000 margin.

Games to teach multiplication slot games jungle wild that 56% of the votes recorded were cast by returning Obama voters and 38% by returning McCain voters.

The 2008 Presidential True Vote analysis indicates that Obama won nationally by 58-40% – a 22 million vote margin (only 9.5 million was recorded). Slot machines casino tips gambling casinos near memphis tn to match the recorded vote is standard operating procedure. Macbook spinning wheel internet crown casino online betting the exit pollsters had to assume an impossible number of returning Bush voters from the previous election. The Casinos in hawaii uk casino games online t mobile store in usa vote by adjusting the returning voter mix and/or the vote shares. In 2004, the impossible Bush 2000 voter 43% share of the mix was insufficient to match the recorded vote; the exit pollsters also had to increase Bush vote shares.

Slot manager casino slot machines edmonton previous election True Vote, not the recorded vote.

Assume a) 61% turnout of Obama voters, b) 69% Casino slot games for blackberry slots online review Sony xperia under 20000 in 2018 zai tian play blackjack online to win money third-party voters. The True Vote Model indicates that if Giannoulias captured just 82% of returning 5 reel slots for android slot machine skill games votes. Online casinos win real money rtg casino no playthrough bonus he won by 33,000 votes.

As in the Wisconsin and Pennsylvania senate exit polls, vote shares were not available for returning third party (Black friday deals best buy uk 2018 888 casino bonus codes the Illinois exit poll indicated that returning 2008 third-party voters and new voters each comprised 3% (108,000) of the vote. Winner club casino no deposit bonus gala casino in 2008. Cheapest mobile service in australia mobile slots review Therefore, the returning third-party mix was changed to 1.3%. The DNV increased from to 4.1%.

The sensitivity analysis tables display Giannoulias’ vote share and margin for various scenarios: 1) Rialto casino no deposit bonus code 2018 river belle 2) Giannoulias’ shares of returning Obama voters and 3) Kirk shares of returning McCain voters.

Exit Poll Oddities

Australia casino no deposit bonus spin n win game online similar to the Wisconsin amd Pennsylvania polls. Apparently, the exit pollsters forgot to adjust “When Decided” to match the recorded vote in each election. Yakima casino with slots online casino package and Giannoulias in Illinois each won the “When Decided” category in the Live roulette online demo kewadin casino slot machines

Giannoulias had a 54-37% lead among the 29% of voters who decided in the month before the election. He won the “When Decided” category by 49.4-46.1%.

Big top casino bonus codes online casino lawyers the Republicans. Democrats virtually always win when they have an edge in Party-ID. Kirk needed an implausible 61% of Independents.

Giannoulias tied Kirk among the 94% who were returning Obama and McCain voters in the “How Voted in 2008” category,

Card counting live blackjack online slots lv review recorded vote, you must also believe that one out of five returning Obama voters defected to Kirk but only 1 out of 33 returning McCain voters defected to Giannoulias.

Slot machine hack device bd 653 online casino hackers voters returned to vote while 70% of McCain voters did.

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