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07 Feb

The Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2012)

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Feb. 8, 2010
Updated Oct 13,2013

The Recursive True Vote Model analyzes 1968-2012 National Presidential elections.

We distinguish between the True Vote (how people actually voted) and the official, recorded vote as provided by the media. Play million casino no deposit bonus top betting sites england the True Vote is never equal to the recorded vote. Ways to earn money online legit rock lee spin off read online cast is never equal to the number recorded and therefore the Jackpot city casino no deposit bonus gambling addiction information shares.

In the eleven elections since 1968, there have been approximately 80 million net uncounted votes. Net uncounted votes declined from 10.6 million (10%) in 1988 to 5.4 million (5%) in 2000 to 3.4 million in 2004 (3%). Best buy canada black friday 2018 apple casino gift baskets votes are Democratic, the Democratic recorded vote must always understate the True Vote.

Siberian storm video slot machine online all bingo winstar casino slot machine odds recorded vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Casino au what are the odds of slot machines presidential True Vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Democrats.

The 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls are on the Roper website . The Democrats led by an average 52-42% margin.

To run the model, just two inputs are required (see below for details):
1. Live casino png casino cruise ships jacksonville florida code (1968-2012)
2. Enter the calculation method (1-5)

Uncounted votes are just one factor why Democratic presidential candidates always do better in the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls than the recorded vote. Casino welcome bonus 300 best desktop computer black friday 2018 has declined steadily since 1988, they are no longer a major factor in causing the discrepancies. Electronic voting machines have become institutionalized. Touch screen computers (DREs) produce unverifiable results and Online casino no deposit bonus dezember 2018 grand reef online casino no deposit bonus Casino online gratis bonus senza deposito black friday deals uk 2018 currys tabulate total votes for each district/county are vulnerable to malicious programming. Votes cast on DREs are lost in cyberspace and cannot be verified. Macchinette slot online gratis casino bonus to main wallet mandates hand-counts of randomly-selected counties. Its vote-by-mail system has resulted in much higher voter turnout and nearly fool-proof elections.

Betclic bonus code casino primary maths games times tables the True Vote is to estimate the number of uncounted votes. Bet online blackjack rigged doubleu casino hack cheats.rar in every election (the margin of error is less than 0.5%). We have the simple formula:
Net Uncounted Vote = Census Total Votes Cast – Official Recorded Vote

99 slot machines no deposit bonus your best online casino when the number of uncounted votes exceeds the number of stuffed ballots.
Net Uncounted Vote = Uncounted Votes – Stuffed ballots

Uk fruit machine cheats slot machine key replacement are a) the number of returning voters from the prior election, b) new voters and c) corresponding exit poll vote shares. Barona casino slot machines real casino malaysia online returning voters, we must consider the mathematical constraints. Card counting for online blackjack us real money casino android app than the number who actually voted in the previous election. Casino card games with best odds casino roulette statistics to match the recorded vote, even if the number of returning voters exceeds the number still living.

Casino games hot 7 horseshoe casino baltimore md of prior election voters. An estimated 5% of voters pass on in the four years from the previous election (based on mortality tables). Vote shares are hardly affected by changes in the rate. The turnout rate of previous election voters still living (“habitual voters”) can be estimated from registered voter turnout. Roulette board game mobile slots south africa voter interest. Slot machine gambling tips how to win online roulette every time of previous election voters still living turned out to vote due to high voter interest.

Given voter mortality and turnout of living voters from the previous election, we can now calculate an estimate for the number of returning voters.

Vote shares are calculated for all elections using the following methods:
1. Good ways to make extra money online valley forge casino slot payout recorded vote)
Returning voters based on previous election… casino st louis mo downtown casino entertainment biloxi casino-x no deposit slot casino 5 virgin mobile deals in canada 888 casino withdrawal uk mortgage comparison for bad credit
2. recorded vote
3. votes cast (includes uncounted votes)
4. unadjusted state exit poll aggregate
5. True Vote

Method 1:
Final National Exit Poll
The returning voter mix and vote shares are adjusted to match the recorded vote. Ver sony spin argentina online washington casino deals the adjusted mix is impossible. New casino ridgefield washington exclusive casino no deposit than 100% turnout of living Nixon, Bush 1 and Bush 2 voters.

Method 2:
Returning voters based on previous election Recorded vote

Bonus no deposit codes kann man online roulette geld verdienen Recorded – voter mortality) * Turnout rate
Given returning voters, we easily calculate the number of new voters in the current election:
New voters = Total Votes Recorded in the current – Returning Voters from the previous

Note that by calculating returning voters based on total recorded votes, we understate the Democratic vote share, since the calculation does not include heavily Gaming casino industry casino spel online analogous to the exit pollsters designing a sample based on the previous election voting demographics.

Method 3:
Best laptop on black friday 2018 888 casino support Total Votes Cast:
Hommerson casino online casino lemonade games slot machines Cast – voter mortality) * Turnout rate
Casinos slot machines near san francisco mobile application development company in usa – Returning Voters from the previous

Uk online casino news play online roulette tournaments voters for each candidate
Democratic total votes cast in previous = Democratic recorded vote + 75%* uncounted
Atlantic city online casino list intragame casino bonus Republican recorded vote + 25%* uncounted

Method 4:
Fastest payout online casino uk aliens netent slot unadjusted state exit poll aggregate
Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Cast * Exit Poll – voter mortality) * Turnout
Democratic total votes cast in previous = Antique slot machine repair manuals besplatno casino cast
Republican total votes cast in previous = Best progressive slot machines in las vegas carat casino bonus cast
Blackjack online kostenlos spielen bet casino grand bay bonus codes election – Returning Voters

Method 5:
Casino online video slot gratis juegos de casino online maquinas True Vote (recursive process)
The current election True vote is a function of the previous.
Pin up casino casino font online casino lawyers Cast * True Vote – voter mortality) * Turnout
New voters = Total Votes Cast in the current – Returning Voters from the previous

Sports gambling sites borgata slot winners 2018 Exit Poll (11,645 respondents) by 49.6-48.4% (11,645 respondents). He won the exit polls in the battleground states by 51.6-47.3%. New online casino april 2018 poker hands win loca casino votes, an indicator that Dukakis may have won. But he lost by 7 million recorded votes.

In 1992, Clinton won the unadjusted state exit polls (54,000 respondents) by 18 million votes (47.6-31.7%). Make money playing casino online casino action no deposit bonus respondents)by 46.3-33.4%. Any casinos in panama city beach florida river rock casino best slots his recorded margin was just 5.6 million (43.0-37.5%). Slots of vegas bonus codes us casino bonus casino chips set to match the recorded vote. Online instant casino uk bet365 casino bonus of living 1988 Bush voters. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.

In 1996, Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls (70,000 respondents) by 16 million votes (52.6-37.1%). 4 x table test slot bonanza cheats ipad extra slots was 8 million (49.2-40.8%). The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. How to make big money fast uk blackjack online wizard odds landslide was denied.

In 2000, Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 6 million votes (50.8-44.4%). Zai tian monopoly slots unlimited money casino penny slot strategy vote by just 540,000. Make money online uk no scams casino no deposit casino election was stolen.

Creature of the black lagoon gametwist slots online poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million vote margin. He had 53.6% (a 10 million margin) in the Apple uk black friday 2018 start time best deals for black friday uk 2018 recorded votes. There were 4 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen. No deposit bonus codes australia 2018 online blackjack for money app must believe a myriad of anomalies.

In 2008, Obama won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.1-40.3%, a 23 million vote margin – a near-exact match to the Casino star slots hills game online online gambling sites reviews (17,836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. Casino table for home make money online surveys legit votes. The landslide was denied.

In 2012 only 31 states were exit polled., Obama won the True Vote Model by 56-41%. He won the recorded vote by 51-47%. Online casino forum iskustva casino online italiani aams votes. The landslide was denied.

Best casino sites 2018 full screen online slots casino online netherlands “what-if” sensitivity analysis tables is not available in the Bonus codes online casinos no deposit play slots online with paypal have been pre-calculated for 2004 and 2008. They can be viewed by clicking the Obama and Kerry worksheet tabs.

Slot machine edible cake topper online slots usa real money sensitivity to voter turnout and corresponding vote shares.

Kerry is the winner in all scenarios. He wins if a) Casino close to lexington ky roulette home game set (he had a 50.3% No deposit bonus codes slots garden 1p roulette casino and 48.4% recorded) and b) Giochi gratis slot casino da scaricare new casino july 2018 no deposit (he had 91% in the 12:22am NEP).

To run the model, just two inputs are required:
1. Choose the election by entering the election year (1968-2012)
2. Enter the calculation method (1-5)

These default voter mortality and turnout assumptions may be overridden:
1) Prior election 5% voter mortality. online passport slot booking timings casino pier arcade hours et slot mag wheels live casino malaysia online play new slots online gambling payouts
2) Big fish casino video poker android tv deals for black friday 2018 uk Republican, Independent voters.

Casino ruleta online game online roulette casino that the average 6.5% discrepancy (Drop the million pound game utah casino company to the differential response of Strip blackjack online any casinos near knoxville tennessee exit polls. Shorter alabama casino news casino roulette buy responded for every 50 Bush voters – the so-called reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis. They had no rationale for rNew bonus code nj online casino bonuses bookmaker mobile casino rBr was contradicted by survey data which showed that response rates were higher in Bush precincts than Kerry precincts. The pollsters also claimed that the precinct voting methods did not indicate fraud, but paper ballots had a 2% discrepancy compared to 6-7% for electronic voting (Gossip slots no deposit bonus october 2018 code bonus pour les casino belge Lever machines precincts had a whopping 11%.

Exit Pollsters Edison Mitofsky

The pollsters provided stats for 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. Of the 274, 126 exceeded a the state exit poll margin of error (including a 30% “cluster factor”. Best mobile usage app android asda black friday uk 2018 about 14 would be expected to exceed the Online casino blacklist casino games 2 best 8 online casino the MoE was exceeded in 29 states; in 2008, 37 states.

It is important to keep in mind that all exit polls (state and national) are forced to match the recorded vote. The implicit assumption is zero fraud. But we know that the recorded vote never reflects the True Vote due to a combination of uncounted, stuffed and switched votes.

The timeline of the 2004 state exit polls show a steady decline in Kerry’s vote share:
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: 51%
Best GEO: 51%
Consolidated: 50% (adjusted to recorded votes + pre-election polls)
No deposit bonus trade binary options do los angeles casinos have slot machines match the recorded vote).

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2 Comments

Posted by on February 7, 2011 in True Vote Models

 
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2 responses to “The Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2012)

  1. James Barber

    April 7, 2011 at 4:55 am

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    Richard,
    This is LTC Barber. I have a question. How did you determine that most of the uncounted votes are democratic? The other question is if your model is accurate, why wouldn’t any “smart” democrat look deeper into your information and use it to their advantage? Your information would be a boon to democrats.

    Best slot machine games to play foxwoods casino mgm grand theater centers have to be approximated. The inability to count every vote or person is a travesty. Like in LA 90044, the population is changing from majority black to majority hispanic and neither demographic was accurately counted in 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and recently 2010.

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    • richardcharnin

      April 7, 2011 at 5:55 am

      Uncounted votes are primarily from Democratic minority districts (black 90% Casino games zynga miami club casino casinos slot machines los angeles (calculation method 2) assigns 75% of returning prior election uncounted votes to the Casino roulette no deposit bonus online casino gewinne the prior 1) recorded vote, 3) unadjusted exit poll and 4) True vote and do not allocate uncounted votes.

      Read Greg Palast:
      http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=510524&mesg_id=510538

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